For Immediate Release: October 6, 2003
Contact: Cara Santos Pianesi, csantos@ceip.org, 202-939-2211
U.S. Approach to Iraqi Elections "Dangerously Accelerated"
Carnegie Proposal Maintains Timeframe But Increases Chance for Success
In the face of growing pressure for Iraqi sovereignty and mounting financial and human costs of the U.S. occupation, the Bush administration is pushing for an Iraqi constitution to be written and approved by spring 2004, with elections held as soon as possible thereafter. In a new Carnegie policy brief, The Right Road to Sovereignty in Iraq, leading democracy promotion experts Marina Ottaway and Thomas Carothers warn that early elections in postconflict situations are often dangerous. Hurried elections, they point out, often do more damage than good, producing results that are rejected by some political factions or that favor radical groups over still-emergent moderate forces.
Yet because the United States decided early on that elections were a prerequisite for the restoration of sovereignty in Iraq, delay of the elections is not a viable option. Ottaway and Carothers maintain that there is only one way to reconcile the need for a quick transfer of power to an elected Iraqi government with the reality that forging a new political system will require time: limit the first phase of the constitution process to writing a basic interim constitution and hold elections next year only for an interim government of national unity and for a constituent assembly.
This approach would allow the United States to quickly transfer sovereignty to an elected Iraqi government, while creating a framework for the longer-term process of political consensus-building which is necessary to establish permanent democratic institutions. Even with more time, Iraqis may not reach the compromises necessary to make a democratic system work. But given the difficult current circumstances and the need to moved forward quickly with an Iraqi-based process, it is the best available way forward.
The policy brief also provides comparative examples of the dangers of premature elections and outlines the specific difficulties involved in crafting a new Iraqi political system.
Marina Ottaway is a senior associate and Thomas Carothers is senior associate and director of Carnegie's Democracy and Rule of Law Project.
Click here for a full-text version of the policy brief in PDF format.
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