Democratic Contagion?

{
  "authors": [
    "Minxin Pei"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "AP",
  "programs": [
    "Asia"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "East Asia",
    "China",
    "Taiwan"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Democracy",
    "Trade",
    "Military"
  ]
}

In The Media

Democratic Contagion?

The political progress in Taiwan and Hong Kong is good news. Ever since Taiwan began its transition to democracy in the late 1980s, optimists have hoped that its opening would serve as a shining beacon for the mainland. But only democratization within China can transform the country.

By Minxin Pei

Published on Mar 22, 2004

Source: Newsweek International

Click here for full text

About the Author

Minxin Pei

Former Adjunct Senior Associate, Asia Program

Pei is Tom and Margot Pritzker ‘72 Professor of Government and the director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College.

Recent Work

In The Media
How China Can Avoid the Next Conflict
- Minxin Pei
In The Media
Small Change
- Minxin Pei

Political Reform Democracy Trade Military East Asia China Taiwan

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Paper
A Tight Spot: Challenges Facing the Russian Oil Sector Through 2035
Russian oil production is remarkably resilient to significant price changes, but significant political headwinds may lead to a drop regardless of economics.
Sergey Vakulenko
Article
Takaichi’s Security Agenda After the Landslide Election
Backed by a new LDP supermajority, Prime Minister Takaichi aspires to revise Japan’s long-standing security doctrine. Ahead of her visit to Washington, she faces fiscal hurdles for her proposed defense spending while needing to navigate President Trump’s request for naval assets to the Strait of Hormuz.
Harukata Takenaka
Commentary
Is the Radical-Right Threat Existential or Overstated?
Amid increased polarization and the influence of disinformation, radical-right parties are once again gaining traction across Europe. With landmark elections on the horizon in several countries, are the EU’s geostrategic vision and fundamental values under existential threat?
Catherine Fieschi, Cas Mudde
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Tokayev’s New Constitution Is a Bet on Stability—At Freedom’s Expense
Kazakhstan’s new constitution is an embodiment of the ruling elite’s fears and a self-serving attempt to preserve the status quo while they still can.
Serik Beysembaev
Article
Rethinking Ukraine’s Manpower Challenge
Strategy and force design are key to solving Kyiv’s persistent manning and readiness problems.
Viktor Kevliuk, Olesya Favorska, Andriy Zagorodnyuk

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Paper

A Tight Spot: Challenges Facing the Russian Oil Sector Through 2035

Russian oil production is remarkably resilient to significant price changes, but significant political headwinds may lead to a drop regardless of economics.

Sergey Vakulenko

apan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (L) reacts as US President Donald Trump delivers a speech in front of US Navy personnel on board the US Navy's USS George Washington aircraft carrier at the US naval base in Yokosuka on October 28, 2025.

Article

Takaichi’s Security Agenda After the Landslide Election

Backed by a new LDP supermajority, Prime Minister Takaichi aspires to revise Japan’s long-standing security doctrine. Ahead of her visit to Washington, she faces fiscal hurdles for her proposed defense spending while needing to navigate President Trump’s request for naval assets to the Strait of Hormuz.

Harukata Takenaka

Commentary

Is the Radical-Right Threat Existential or Overstated?

Amid increased polarization and the influence of disinformation, radical-right parties are once again gaining traction across Europe. With landmark elections on the horizon in several countries, are the EU’s geostrategic vision and fundamental values under existential threat?

Catherine Fieschi, Cas Mudde

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Tokayev’s New Constitution Is a Bet on Stability—At Freedom’s Expense

Kazakhstan’s new constitution is an embodiment of the ruling elite’s fears and a self-serving attempt to preserve the status quo while they still can.

Serik Beysembaev

Photo of Ukrainian soldiers against a setting sun.

Article

Rethinking Ukraine’s Manpower Challenge

Strategy and force design are key to solving Kyiv’s persistent manning and readiness problems.

Viktor Kevliuk, Olesya Favorska, Andriy Zagorodnyuk