FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - April 14 2004
As President Vladimir Putin begins his second term, the United States has an opportunity to influence Russia’s strategic nuclear direction. Carnegie Endowment Senior Associate Rose Gottemoeller—in “Nuclear Necessity in Putin’s Russia,” in the April issue of Arms Control Today—offers an insider’s look into Russian nuclear decision-making and outlines new roles for the United States and Russia that help ensure global security.
Gottemoeller paints a potentially disturbing picture of the Putin presidency; all-out nuclear exercises harkening back to the Cold War; announcement of plans for a new strategic weapon system; the decision not to implement START II nuclear arsenal reductions; and new directions in Russian military doctrine to consider a nuclear response to full-scale, non-nuclear aggression.
While of concern, these decisions have largely revolved around a combination of military necessity—nuclear weapons as an insurance policy against conventional weakness—and a political expression of national pride. “The celebration of the nuclear forces has also served a reassurance function, conveying that the leadership, and particularly Putin, value the military’s contribution to Russia’s future,” she writes. She also notes the critical U.S. role. For example, it was only after the United States withdrew from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty that Russia announced it would not implement START II cuts.
Looking ahead, the author raises concerns that in Putin’s second term, Russia will decide to modernize its nuclear capability, developing, building and possibly testing new nuclear warheads. U.S. policy could shape these decisions. “Washington is more accustomed… to thinking of Russia more as a proliferation problem than part of the solution,” she writes. “With sufficient U.S. cooperation and encouragement, Putin might be able to provide a new and positive answer to the question of what purpose nuclear weapons serve in today’s Russia.”
Among many supporting examples, Gottemoeller notes that the Russians already have shown a willingness to take a firmer hand with Iran over the supply of nuclear reactor fuel; the United States could encourage them to take a similar approach with North Korea. And Russians could lead by example, securing nuclear materials from terrorists. Read the entire article at www.carnegieendowment.org/russia.
Rose Gottemoeller is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She has served as deputy undersecretary for defense nuclear nonproliferation in the Department of Energy.