FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: April 8, 2005
Contact: Cara Santos Pianesi, 202/939-2211, csantos@CarnegieEndowment.org
The Arab world is changing---- profoundly. The evidence: demonstrations in Lebanon, protests joining Islamists and liberals in Egypt, municipal elections in Saudi Arabia, ceasefire declarations by Palestinian resistance movements, and multi-party negotiations for a Iraqi coalition government. But predicting the outcome of the current ferment is extremely difficult, cautions Carnegie Endowment scholar Amr Hamzawy. In a new Policy Outlook, Hamzawy writes, “The dream of pluralism and open public spheres goes hand in hand with the risk of authoritarian backlash and radical Islamist insurgencies.” He notes three key trends at play in Understanding Arab Political Reality: One Lens is not Enough, available only on the Web at www.CarnegieEndowment.org/democracy.
The first trend: democratization is gaining a toehold. Hamzawy points to events in Iraq, the Palestinian Authority, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Despite legitimate reservations as to the significance of these developments, Hamzawy maintains that a crack has emerged in the authoritarian pattern of the state-society relationship in these countries.
A second trend is the rediscovery of the nation-state and the acceptance of its sanctioned public space as the way ahead for political claims. Long scorned by Pan-Arabists and Islamists, the nation-state is pushing transnational concepts of an Arab or Islamic umma (community) into the political background.
However, a third alarming trend is the new wave of militant Islamism increasingly taking root in the Gulf. As a result, regimes are justifying the slow rate of the reform process (as in Saudi Arabia) or its standstill (Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman), citing their need to combat terror and preserve national security.
Hamzawy also points out the inherently ambiguous nature of transformations in non-democratic countries in general, adding one caveat: “This is a diverse region, one of impulsive beginnings, abrupt ends and unprecedented shifts.”
Amr Hamzawy is a senior associate in the Endowment’s Democracy and Rule of Law project.
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