FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: August 5, 2005
CONTACT: Cara Santos Pianesi, 202/939-2211, csantos@CarnegieEndowment.org
Russia is the only country in the world that has become authoritarian during President George W. Bush’s tenure. Its government suffers from an acute overcentralization of power and resultant paralysis. President Putin’s power base has shrunk to a core of secret policeman from St. Petersburg; independent information and media are increasingly strangulated; Russian insiders contend that the Kremlin has never been as pervasively corrupt. The question is hardly whether President Putin will hang on to power after his second term expires but whether he will survive that long, asserts Carnegie senior associate Anders Åslund in a new Policy Brief. Against this backdrop, the United States should not hesitate to promote democracy in Russia, while pragmatically pursuing common interests in nonproliferation and energy.
Putin’s Decline and America’s Response is available HERE.
Åslund points to four failures that stand out since President Putin’s consolidation of power in his second term: the Yukos affair, the Beslan hostage drama, the Ukrainian elections, and the inept execution of social benefits reform. “These failures have not been incidental, but reflect the inadequacy of [Putin’s] new system,” he writes.
As a result, no illusion can persist about shared democratic values between the United States and Russia. As Russia’s regime falters, key changes such as military reform have been shelved— making Russia a less effective partner. Supporting freedom in Russia and the newly independent states in Eurasia should be preeminent if the United States is serious about its democratization rhetoric. Putin’s Decline offers specific recommendations in this regard.
Yet, promoting democratic reform in a country with whom the United States must cooperate on vital issues is delicate work. Åslund underlines that certain interests shared by the United States and Russia should not be sacrificed. The United States needs Russia’s cooperation on nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction, especially with respect to Iran. The United States should also encourage Russia’s cooperation in the energy sphere and its maintenance of privatized oil pipelines given the increasing global scarcity of oil.
Anders Åslund is the director of Carnegie’s Russian and Eurasian Program.
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