in the media

Five Scenarios for the Iranian Crisis

published by
IFRI
 on December 26, 2006

Source: IFRI

Since August 2005, Iran's campaign to enrich uranium and acquire other technologies and practical experience that would enable it to produce nuclear weapons has gained momentum. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and militant elements in Iran's ruling circle pointedly continue to defy international demands to cease uranium enrichment while the International Atomic Energy Agency's doubts about the peacefulness of Iran's past nuclear activities remain unresolved - according to the IAEA, Iran has not provided adequate cooperation to help resolve these doubts. This obstinate stance, paired with an aggressive posture toward Israel, has heightened Ahmadinejad's popularity in the wider Arab world, including Sunnis. In an unpredicted and quite ironic way, the Persian Ahmadinejad has become an avatar of Arab nationalism. The popularity of Iran's defiant position has, in turn, hardened Iran's resistance to international policy objectives to constrain the nuclear program.

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