• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
Democracy
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [],
  "type": "pressRelease",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [
    "Asia"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "North America",
    "United States",
    "China"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Economy",
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}
REQUIRED IMAGE

REQUIRED IMAGE

Press Release

China Will Surpass U.S. Economically by 2035, Double by Midcentury

China’s economy will surpass that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a new report by Albert Keidel concludes. China’s rapid growth is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century.

Link Copied
Published on Jul 8, 2008
Program mobile hero image

Program

Asia

The Asia Program in Washington studies disruptive security, governance, and technological risks that threaten peace, growth, and opportunity in the Asia-Pacific region, including a focus on China, Japan, and the Korean peninsula.

Learn More

WASHINGTON, July 8—China’s economy will surpass that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a new report by Albert Keidel concludes. China’s rapid growth is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century.

In China’s Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction, Keidel examines China’s likely economic trajectory and its implications for global commercial, institutional, and military leadership.

Key Conclusions:

  • Potential stumbling blocks to sustained Chinese growth—export concerns, domestic economic instability, inequality and poverty, pollution, social unrest, or even corruption and slow political reform—are unlikely to undermine China’s long-term success.
  • China’s financial system, rather than a shortcoming that compromises growth potential, is one of the strengths of what the report calls “China’s money-making machine,” in part because of its ability to support the financing of infrastructure and other public investments necessary for sustained rapid growth.
  • A Chinese economy that eclipses the U.S. by midcentury has both commercial and potential military implications. China will be the preeminent world commercial influence. China’s military capabilities are a small fraction of the United States’ today, so there is time to prepare for a very different world in fifty years, says the report.  
  • American policy makers should take this opportunity to enact wide-ranging domestic reforms and rethink their concepts of global order.  

"China’s economic performance clearly is no flash in the pan. Its growth this decade has averaged more than 10 percent a year and is still going strong in the first half of 2008. Because its success in recent decades has not been export-led but driven by domestic demand, its rapid growth can continue well into the twenty-first century, unfettered by world market limitation. China’s likely continued success will eventually bring an end to America’s global economic preeminence, requiring strategic reassessment by all major economies—especially the United States, the European Union, Japan, and even China itself."

###


bullet
NOTES
  • Direct link to the PDF: www.carnegieendowment.org/files/pb61_keidel_final.pdf

  • Albert Keidel is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment, where he specializes in Chinese economic issues and related U.S. policy. He formerly served as deputy director and acting director at the Office of East Asian Nations in the U.S. Treasury Department. Before that, he was senior economist at the World Bank office in Beijing.

  • The Carnegie China Programin Beijing and Washington provides policy makers in both countries with a better understanding of the dynamics within China and between the United States and China. In addition to books, policy briefs, papers, and other publications, the Program produces Carnegie China Insight Monthly, a Chinese-language e-newsletter, and hosts the Hong Kong Journal, an online quarterly covering political, economic, and social issues on Hong Kong and its relations with mainland China, the United States, and other governments and international organizations.

  • Press Contact: Trent Perrotto, 202/939-2372, tperrotto@ceip.org
EconomyForeign PolicyNorth AmericaUnited StatesChina

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • People on a stage
    Commentary
    Emissary
    The Dangerous Consequences of Treating Colombia Like Venezuela

    When democracies and autocracies are seen as interchangeable targets, the language of democracy becomes hollow, and the incentives for democratic governance erode.

      • Sarah Yerkes

      Sarah Yerkes, Amr Hamzawy

  • Workers of automotive manufacturer VW assemble pieces of a model in the Uitenhage plant.
    Paper
    Win-Win: The Potential and Prospects of German FDI in Supporting the Structural Transformation of African Economies

    German manufacturing firms in Africa add value, jobs, and skills, while benefiting from demand and a diversification of trade and investment partners. It is in the interest of both African economies and Germany to deepen economic relations. 

      Hannah Grupp, Paul M. Lubeck

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Has Trump the Destroyer Eclipsed Putin the Destroyer?

    Unexpectedly, Trump’s America appears to have replaced Putin’s Russia’s as the world’s biggest disruptor.

      Alexander Baunov

  • Soldier looking at a drone on the ground
    Commentary
    Emissary
    Are All Wars Now Drone Wars?

    From Sudan to Ukraine, UAVs have upended warfighting tactics and become one of the most destructive weapons of conflict.

      • Jon Bateman

      Jon Bateman, Steve Feldstein

  • Carney speaking on stage
    Commentary
    Emissary
    Carney’s Remarkable Message to Middle Powers

    And how they can respond.

      • +1

      Sophia Besch, Steve Feldstein, Stewart Patrick, …

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600Fax: 202 483 1840
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.