Source: bloggingheads.tv
President-elect Obama will inherit a daunting foreign policy agenda when he takes office January 20, with three wars, two involving U.S. troops and one in Gaza, the question of dealing with the detainees remaining at Guantanamo, and the looming threat of a nuclear Iran. Though Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton laid out some basic positions in her confirmation hearings – the Obama administration will engage directly with Iran and will close Guantanamo, for example – the details of how the administration will pursue these objectives remain unclear. Robert Kagan and Robert Wright of the New America Foundation debate possible courses of action for the incoming administration.
Closing Guantanamo
Kagan is skeptical of pragmatic arguments for releasing Guantanamo detainees, noting the difficulty of demonstrating a link between the United States’ detention policies and further acts of terrorism. The strongest argument for closing Guantanamo and releasing most of the detainees is that it represents a violation of American values.
Talking to Iran
Wright and Kagan agreed with Secretary of State-designate Clinton’s statement in her confirmation hearing that Iran must become a constructive, “respectable and respected” regional player. They disagreed, however, about how Iran will respond to this opening gambit. Although Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon could trigger a regional arms race, Kagan cautioned against bombing Iran, saying, “it’s not clear what the military option can achieve.”
Gaza
Israel’s offensive in Gaza has crippled Hamas’ ability to launch rockets, but has not removed the incentive to target Israel nor the beliefs underlying the group’s embrace of terrorism. Kagan noted that though historically military force has been an effective way to alter beliefs, changing Hamas’ belief in the effectiveness of terrorism will require sustained engagement by the United States, to remove Hamas’ perception that the international community will not help the Israelis and Palestinians achieve lasting peace.