Source: BBC's Analysis
The continuing fighting between the Yemeni government and rebels in the north threatens the tenuous stability of the Yemeni state. Yemen also faces threats on several other fronts, namely a secession movement in the south and a recurring threat from Al-Qaeda and similar jihadi groups. Christopher Boucek suggests, “"When you look at what's going on in the country there's this convergence of problems and right now none of these issues—if it’s demographic or economic, or domestic security—none of them are yet crisis points. However, there is a point about five years in the future when they are all going to converge and this is going to be a perfect storm that will—worst case scenario—overwhelm Yemen’s ability to survive.”
Of most interest to the international community is the looming threat of an Al-Qaeda resurgence in the country. Unfortunately, Yemen does not have the capacity to fight Al-Qaeda like Saudi Arabia. “The Saudis were able to drive a wedge between the public and the extremists and demonstrate that the extremists were not thinking in the people’s interest. The Saudi’s were able to do that because they have a strong central government and a very rich government with resources, legitimacy and religious credibility. We do not see any of these things in Yemen,” remarks Boucek.
With the overall crisis in Yemen continuing to metastasize, the international community is beginning to pay more attention and American security officials discuss Yemen as a major area of concern. However, “at the same time, no administration in the last 50 years has had as many problems to deal with,” noted Boucek. “Yemen is down on the list of action items for most governments."