The Pentagon is calling for a rapid AI transformation. Autonomous drones offer a case study in the eight bottlenecks the U.S. military must navigate to realize that vision.
Jake Steckler
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In the wake of the global economic downturn, Americans are spending less and saving more, a trend that threatens dangerous economic repercussions around the world. Without greater global investment or a rise in Chinese domestic consumption, the increasing U.S. savings rate will cause U.S. GDP to contract or Chinese GDP growth to drop sharply, creating aftershocks in dozens of major economies.
BEIJING, Nov 24—In the wake of the global economic downturn, Americans are spending less and saving more, a trend that threatens dangerous economic repercussions around the world. Without greater global investment—which remains unlikely in today’s economic climate—or a rise in Chinese domestic consumption, the increasing U.S. savings rate will cause U.S. GDP to contract or Chinese GDP growth to drop sharply, creating aftershocks in dozens of major economies.
Trade policies will likely determine which country is least impacted, setting the stage for a showdown between China and the United States. Both countries would be wise to pursue a coordinated policy that controls the losses in the least disruptive way, concludes a new policy brief by Michael Pettis.
Key conclusions:
Recommendations for policy makers:
“While some in the United States may relish a difficult economic transition for China, no serious policy maker should consider such a prospect as anything other than harmful to long-term U.S. interests. For all the problems China will face, its role in resolving the main issues facing the world will only increase,” writes Pettis. “An economically difficult transition would undermine reformers in China who understand the country’s role in the global economy and would weaken its increasing tendency toward international cooperation. A mistrustful China, with pro-Western reformers undermined by nationalist hostility, is not good for the United States.”
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NOTES
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
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