• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Douglas H. Paal"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "AP",
  "programs": [
    "Asia"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "East Asia",
    "China"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Economy",
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

In The Media

Who's the Boss?

While China has adopted an increasingly tough stance in recent disputes with the United States, its rhetoric has not been matched by aggressive action, and fears about a new cold war are unfounded.

Link Copied
By Douglas H. Paal
Published on Feb 11, 2010
Program mobile hero image

Program

Asia

The Asia Program in Washington studies disruptive security, governance, and technological risks that threaten peace, growth, and opportunity in the Asia-Pacific region, including a focus on China, Japan, and the Korean peninsula.

Learn More

Source: BBC's World Have Your Say

From Taiwan arms sales to the Google dispute, recent tensions between the United States and China have cast a shadow over the bilateral relationship. It has also put the spotlight on China’s increasingly assertive diplomacy. Some fear that the two nations are facing increasing tensions that may have global ramifications.
 
As Douglas Paal argues on the BBC’s World Have Your Say, perceptions of growing Chinese confidence and U.S. decline will not lead to a new cold war. While China has adopted tough rhetoric against the United States, this has not been accompanied by a real shift in its policies. Instead, this rhetoric reflects an increasingly vocal and influential group of domestic hardliners who have overestimated China’s global clout. As such views have gained considerable traction, pragmatic Chinese officials have stiffened their language toward the United States but remain careful not to take actions that would seriously jeopardize the bilateral relationship. Paal also points out that the high degree of economic interdependence between the United States and China will keep them from pulling the trigger on each other and unleashing a major conflict.

About the Author

Douglas H. Paal

Distinguished Fellow, Asia Program

Paal previously served as vice chairman of JPMorgan Chase International and as unofficial U.S. representative to Taiwan as director of the American Institute in Taiwan.

    Recent Work

  • Paper
    America’s Future in a Dynamic Asia

      Douglas H. Paal

  • Q&A
    U.S.-China Relations at the Forty-Year Mark
      • +1

      Douglas H. Paal, Tong Zhao, Chen Qi, …

Douglas H. Paal
Distinguished Fellow, Asia Program
Douglas H. Paal
Political ReformEconomyForeign PolicyEast AsiaChina

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • silhouetted figure watching a row of TVs.
    Commentary
    Emissary
    9/11 at 25: A Reading List for Understanding the War on Terror

    The books, podcasts, and films that explain the world it made.

      • Andrew Leber

      Andrew Leber

  • Aerial view of shipping containers at a port
    Commentary
    Emissary
    The Fallout of the U.S.–Canada Trade War Won’t Be Limited to North America

    U.S. trading partners in Asia are closely watching the dispute for signs of how it may affect their own interests.

      • Barbara Weisel

      Barbara Weisel

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Europe Fails to Learn the Lessons from Ceuta

    The aftermath of the Ceuta crisis shows Europe has drawn the wrong lessons. Rather than doubling down on failed migration policies, the EU needs to address the underlying roots of such episodes.

      Richard Youngs

  • US President Donald Trump waves as he leaves after speaking at a campaign rally
    Paper
    America Walks Away from Global Democracy

    By abandoning past U.S. pro-democracy policies and adopting several lines of pro-autocratic action, the Trump administration has fundamentally repositioned the United States vis-à-vis democracy in the world.

      Thomas Carothers

  • olice officers and residents stand in front of a shopping mall while a large outdoor screen broadcasts a military welcome ceremony featuring U.S. and Chinese flags for U.S. President Donald Trump hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People on May 14, 2026
    Paper
    American Power: A View from China

    Chinese strategists are once again debating whether American power is declining and whether U.S. hegemony is experiencing irreversible decay.

      Wu Xinbo

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.