Commentary
The EU’s new migration policy is not suited to today’s realities. With climate change increasingly becoming a driver of displacement, Europe needs to rethink its deterrence-focused approach.
Shana Tabak
{
"authors": [],
"type": "pressRelease",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North Africa",
"Mauritania",
"Maghreb"
],
"topics": [
"Security"
]
}
REQUIRED IMAGE
Press Release
Al-Qaeda’s uncertain African prospects
Lightly patrolled borders, sparsely populated areas, and recent terrorist activity raise fears that the Sahel is a fertile ground for jihadist movements, notably al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Regional cooperation and discreet aid from the West are critical for countries to regain control of their territory and prevent al-Qaeda from gaining ground in Africa.
Published on Jun 10, 2010
WASHINGTON, June 10—Lightly patrolled borders, sparsely populated areas, and recent terrorist activity raise fears that the Sahel is a fertile ground for jihadist movements, notably al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Regional cooperation and discreet aid from the West are critical for countries to regain control of their territory and prevent al-Qaeda from gaining ground in Africa, asserts a new paper by Jean-Pierre Filiu.
Key Conclusions
- AQIM poses more of a security threat than a direct political threat to governments. Terrorist networks linked to al-Qaeda operate in Mauritania, Mali, and Niger, but their roots are shallow and they enjoy little popular support. AQIM is weakened by internal rivalry and its partnership with criminals, limiting its broader appeal.
- Al-Qaeda’s central leadership doesn’t seem to have any grand plans for Africa, but leaders are interested in incorporating new recruits from the Sahel.
- The ethno-racial divide within al-Qaeda prevents African recruits from gaining leadership roles. The terror organization’s three affiliates—in the Arabian Peninsula, Iraq, and the Islamic Maghreb—remain essentially Arab, and AQIM struggles to prove its commitment to “Africanized” jihad without Africanizing some of its leadership.
Recommendations for policy makers
- Equip security forces. Counterterrorism forces in Sahel countries are ill-equipped to chase and fight AQIM across vast areas and need quiet international assistance to control areas that are now security risks for foreigners.
- Collaborate regionally. Security cooperation between neighboring countries is critical for disrupting AQIM’s mobility.
- Avoid direct intervention from the West. Any public display of U.S. or European involvement will play into AQIM’s hands.
“Mauritania, Mali, and Niger are among the world’s poorest states and will require international support to defuse AQIM’s momentum,” writes Filiu. “Algeria is right to push for regional cooperation to address the threat, and discreet aid from the West is crucial to help the Sahel countries regain control of their territory from al-Qaeda forces and prevent the terror group from taking hold in Africa.”
###
NOTES
- Jean-Pierre Filiu is a professor at the Paris Institute of Political Studies (Sciences Po, Middle East department) and the author of Apocalypse in Islam (forthcoming, University of California Press).
- The Carnegie Middle East Program combines in-depth local knowledge with incisive comparative analysis to examine economic, socio-political, and strategic interests in the Arab world to provide analysis and recommendations in both English and Arabic that are deeply informed by knowledge and views from the region.
- The Carnegie Middle East Center based in Beirut, Lebanon, aims to better inform the process of political change in the Middle East.
- Carnegie's Arab Reform Bulletin analyzes political reform in the Middle East.
- Press Contact: David Kampf, 202/939-2233, pressoffice@ceip.org
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- The Climate Blind Spot in Europe’s New Migration Pact
- Russia’s Elite Conflict Over Internet Restrictions Does Not Herald Regime CollapseCommentary
A much-discussed disagreement over internet restrictions in Russia was never an existential threat for Putin: It was about elite groups protecting their interests.
Alexandra Prokopenko
- Is Belarus Really Set to Return to the Ukraine War?Commentary
By reminding the world that Lukashenko is a threat to NATO and Ukraine, Kyiv is trying to return the focus to why the Belarusian regime needs to be contained rather than rewarded.
Artyom Shraibman
- Parallel Climate Reckonings: Colonial Water Legacies and Indigenous Adaptation, from Morocco to the American WestArticle
If Indigenous land and water dispossession is ignored, climate adaptation strategies risk reproducing inequalities and worsening acute climate vulnerability.
Frederic Wehrey, Charles H. Johnson
- China’s Police and Security Cooperation AgreementsPaper
China’s Ministry of Public Security is often portrayed as a domestic law enforcement agency, but it is also a global security actor. This paper explores how MPS has used international law enforcement and security cooperation agreements—over 200 since 2006—to advance China’s vision of security in a changing global environment.
Sophie Zhuang, Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Cameron Waltz
