Commentary
Amr Hamzawy
{
"authors": [
"Amr Hamzawy"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [
"Arab Awakening"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North Africa",
"Tunisia",
"Maghreb"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Tunisia: Revolution Shows Hollowness of Arab System in Face of People Power
The recent revolution in Tunisia demonstrates the strong potential for citizens to rise up against authoritarianism and should serve as encouragement for Arab leaders to implement democratic change in their own nations.
By Amr Hamzawy
Published on Jan 19, 2011
Source: Los Angeles Times
First, Tunisian citizens have reminded Arabs of the main lesson of democratic transformations: Never underestimate the potential of peoples stifled under the yoke of authoritarianism. No matter how long the rule lasts or how tight its grip, citizens will instigate change through sudden revolutions and uprisings with the power to overcome corruption and bullets.
Second, Arabs have learned that authoritarian regimes lack public legitimacy, even if they create economic growth. Under Ben Ali, Tunisia had the highest growth rate among Arab countries outside the Gulf region; average annual individual income rose to $4,000, education became more widespread, and illiteracy rates were cut significantly.
Once this growth stagnated, however, many Tunisians became dissatisfied and had no place to turn to air their grievances. Their concerns about bread-and-butter issues quickly evolved into a broader demand for political liberties and democracy.
Third, authoritarian leaders are incapable of comprehending people’s suffering. Ben Ali and his ministers ignored rising unemployment rates of 40% among the educated youth and the increasing gap between rich and poor. When street protests turned into a larger uprising, Ben Ali’s regime responded with bullets and clubs. It was only in the final days of his 23-year rule that Ben Ali promised citizens economic and social development, government accountability and democratic change. He convinced no one.
Fourth, attempts to overthrow authoritarian rule can occur spontaneously and gain momentum quickly. Demonstrators in Tunisia went beyond raising slogans of democracy, human rights and good governance by forcing the regime to acknowledge their basic social and economic rights. While the cost of overcoming Ben Ali’s regime was high — some 70 Tunisians were killed before he left the country — the demonstrators’ speed and persistence, as well as their growing ability to use social media, were successful in facilitating change.
Finally, authoritarian rulers in the Arab world who form friendships with the West — as Tunisia did — should recall the Islamic revolution of Iran in 1979 that overthrew Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Despite the West’s support for the authoritarian ruler, dictators can be removed from office and Western capitals are among the first to give up on them.
If Arab leaders of recalcitrant regimes heed these lessons, they should seek to implement democratic change in measured steps. Within a few weeks, they can impose a democratic form of government, despite the absence of viable opposition. That would benefit not only those in power, but their citizens as well.
About the Author
Amr Hamzawy
Director, Middle East Program
Amr Hamzawy is a senior fellow and the director of the Carnegie Middle East Program. His research and writings focus on governance in the Middle East and North Africa, social vulnerability, and the different roles of governments and civil societies in the region.
- Iran Is Pushing Its Neighbors Toward the United States
- U.S. Peace Mediation in the Middle East: Lessons for the Gaza Peace PlanPaper
Amr Hamzawy, Sarah Yerkes, Kathryn Selfe
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Africa’s Global Economic Edge: Advancing Strategic SectorsArticle
In key sectors such as critical minerals, specialty agriculture, and fintech, Africa can become a global powerhouse by investing more in manufacturing, value-add, and scaling.
Kholofelo Kugler, Georgia Schaefer-Brown
- Kenya’s Health Deal Is a Stress Test for the America First Global Health StrategyArticle
U.S. agreements must contend with national data protection laws to make durable foreign policy instruments.
Jane Munga, Rose Mosero
- After Ilia II: What Will a New Patriarch Mean for Georgia?Commentary
The front-runner to succeed Ilia II, Metropolitan Shio, is prone to harsh anti-Western rhetoric and frequent criticism of “liberal ideologies” that he claims threaten the Georgian state. This raises fears that under his leadership the Georgian Orthodox Church will lose its unifying role and become an instrument of ultraconservative ideology.
Bashir Kitachaev
- Tokayev’s New Constitution Is a Bet on Stability—At Freedom’s ExpenseCommentary
Kazakhstan’s new constitution is an embodiment of the ruling elite’s fears and a self-serving attempt to preserve the status quo while they still can.
Serik Beysembaev
- The EU Needs a Third Way in IranCommentary
European reactions to the war in Iran have lost sight of wider political dynamics. The EU must position itself for the next phase of the crisis without giving up on its principles.
Richard Youngs
