Source: New York Times
Look Toward Saudi ArabiaThe crisis in Egypt will have major implications for the Arab world, but the peace process will not be significantly affected. While it’s too early to tell at this stage what the shape of a future Egyptian government will take, it is safe to say that any of the potential new leaders will not break Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel.
Unlike many other Arab leaders, President Mubarak has enjoyed a solid working relationship with Prime Minister Netanyahu, but this hasn’t moved the peace process forward. And it’s important to note that before the protests erupted on the Egyptian streets, relations between Israel and Egypt were cold on a popular level.
Cairo’s influence over the peace process has actually been waning over the last several years. Egypt tried to broker an agreement between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, but didn’t succeed. So even with Egypt’s engagement there have been no tangible breakthroughs in recent years.
The key country to look toward in the Arab world on the peace process is not Egypt, but Saudi Arabia. Along with the United States, Saudi Arabia will be crucial for charting a new plan for getting to the endgame before it’s too late. And this won’t change with new leadership in Cairo.
Egypt has undoubtedly played an important and leading role in pushing the peace process forward in the past, but there’s not much of a peace process at the moment. With this in mind, colder relations between Egypt and Israel will not make a huge difference over the prospects for peace between Israelis and Palestinians in the short term.