Nuclear Security in Pakistan: Issues and Implications

Hudson Institute

According to the Pakistani press, U.S. interest in Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and the security of its fissile materials appears to be guided by self-interest rather than concern for Pakistan’s welfare, said Carnegie’s George Perkovich, speaking at a panel co-sponsored by the Hudson Institute, the Partnership for a Secure America, and the Stanley Foundation. He was joined by Harvard’s Matthew Bunn, and Aparna Pande of the Hudson Institute. Perkovich argued that U.S. efforts to assist Pakistan with nuclear security are perceived in Pakistan as disingenuous. He explained that this view is magnified by concern over close U.S.-India ties and a fear that greater U.S. assistance in Pakistan’s nuclear complex would give the United States access to sensitive details, which could then be exploited or shared with India.   

Tensions with India remain at the forefront of Pakistan’s nuclear debates, Perkovich said. There is always the possibility that a crisis could escalate to nuclear exchange. The United States bent international nonproliferation rules to elevate India over the last five years, including selling New Delhi conventional weapons and passing the U.S.-India peaceful nuclear cooperation deal. Accordingly, many in Pakistan are skeptical of the United States and feel that Washington has strongly aligned itself with India.

U.S. humanitarian assistance to Pakistan following the earthquake and the flood were greatly beneficial in demonstrating Washington’s concern for Pakistan and easing bilateral relations. Official comments in support of Pakistan have helped ease tensions and demonstrated good will, Perkovich said.

While many in the United States are concerned that terrorists could acquire Pakistani fissile material, a far greater concern is actually the potential collapse of the Pakistani state, Perkovich said. Pakistan’s army is one of the country’s strongest institutions and it maintains control over the country’s arsenal. The army has a real incentive to prevent other parties from acquiring Pakistan’s weapons, nuclear knowledge, or fissile materials. As a result, the greater threat may be internal problems within Pakistan, Perkovich said. Pakistan is plagued by a number of considerable internal problems, including an army insurgency in Balochistan, Sunni-Shi’i tensions, government corruption, and economic woes.