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What Does the Arab Spring Mean for Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus?

The Arab Spring has more in common with events in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s than Central and Eastern Europe in 1989. The impact of events in the Middle East for states outside the region will depend on the legitimacy and adaptability of their regimes.

by Thomas Carothers
published by
CSIS
 on June 28, 2011

Source: CSIS

Speaking on a CSIS podcast, Carnegie's Thomas Carothers explained that the Middle East today is not comparable to Central and Eastern Europe in 1989, due to divergent domestic and international conditions. Instead, transitions away from military rule in Indonesia and Argentina and political changes in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s can serve as more instructive analogies.

The implications of the Arab Spring for Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus will depend on the legitimacy and adaptability of political regimes in these regions as well as societal and demographic factors, Carothers concluded.

Political ReformDemocracyMiddle EastNorth AfricaCaucasusEastern Europe
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