• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
DemocracyIran
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Thomas Carothers"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Arab Awakening"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "democracy",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "DCG",
  "programs": [
    "Democracy, Conflict, and Governance"
  ],
  "projects": [
    "Eurasia in Transition"
  ],
  "regions": [
    "Middle East",
    "North Africa",
    "Caucasus",
    "Eastern Europe"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Democracy"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

In The Media

What Does the Arab Spring Mean for Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus?

The Arab Spring has more in common with events in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s than Central and Eastern Europe in 1989. The impact of events in the Middle East for states outside the region will depend on the legitimacy and adaptability of their regimes.

Link Copied
By Thomas Carothers
Published on Jun 28, 2011
Program mobile hero image

Program

Democracy, Conflict, and Governance

The Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program is a leading source of independent policy research, writing, and outreach on global democracy, conflict, and governance. It analyzes and seeks to improve international efforts to reduce democratic backsliding, mitigate conflict and violence, overcome political polarization, promote gender equality, and advance pro-democratic uses of new technologies.

Learn More
Project hero Image

Project

Eurasia in Transition

Learn More

Source: CSIS

Speaking on a CSIS podcast, Carnegie's Thomas Carothers explained that the Middle East today is not comparable to Central and Eastern Europe in 1989, due to divergent domestic and international conditions. Instead, transitions away from military rule in Indonesia and Argentina and political changes in Sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s can serve as more instructive analogies.

The implications of the Arab Spring for Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus will depend on the legitimacy and adaptability of political regimes in these regions as well as societal and demographic factors, Carothers concluded.

About the Author

Thomas Carothers

Harvey V. Fineberg Chair for Democracy Studies; Director, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program

Thomas Carothers, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, is a leading expert on comparative democratization and international support for democracy.

    Recent Work

  • Commentary
    When Do Mass Protests Topple Autocrats?
      • McKenzie Carrier

      Thomas Carothers, McKenzie Carrier

  • Article
    The Trump Administration’s Tangled Talk About Democracy Abroad
      • McKenzie Carrier

      Thomas Carothers, McKenzie Carrier

Thomas Carothers
Harvey V. Fineberg Chair for Democracy Studies; Director, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program
Thomas Carothers
Political ReformDemocracyMiddle EastNorth AfricaCaucasusEastern Europe

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Heavily armed security personnel standing atop an armored vehicle
    Commentary
    Emissary
    When Do Mass Protests Topple Autocrats?

    The recent record of citizen uprisings in autocracies spells caution for the hope that a new wave of Iranian protests may break the regime’s hold on power.

      • McKenzie Carrier

      Thomas Carothers, McKenzie Carrier

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    The EU Needs a Third Way in Iran

    European reactions to the war in Iran have lost sight of wider political dynamics. The EU must position itself for the next phase of the crisis without giving up on its principles.

      Richard Youngs

  • High-tech data center with server racks
    Article
    The Architecture of Digital Repression

    Internet service providers can facilitate internet access but also draconian control.

      Irene Poetranto

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Georgia’s Fall From U.S. Favor Heralds South Caucasus Realignment

    With the White House only interested in economic dealmaking, Georgia finds itself eclipsed by what Armenia and Azerbaijan can offer.

      Bashir Kitachaev

  • Crowds holding Iranian flags and photos of the late Khamenei
    Commentary
    Emissary
    Who Will Be Iran’s Next Supreme Leader?

    If the succession process can be carried out as Khamenei intended, it will likely bring a hardliner into power.

      • Eric Lob

      Eric Lob

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600Fax: 202 483 1840
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.