Source: Insights on Law and Society
Maintaining the Nuclear OrderThe existing nuclear order faces unprecedented changes. Iran and Syria are in breach of their safeguards commitments and may yet develop nuclear weapons. Non-nuclear weapon states are demanding more immediate and permanent steps from the United States, Russia, and other nuclear weapon holders to disarm. And despite the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, many states are considering nuclear power, including in politically volatile regions such as the Middle East.
At the center of the nuclear order is the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations agency charged with verifying that nuclear programs remain peaceful and with facilitating the development of nuclear energy. In navigating this changing landscape, the IAEA faces three principal challenges.
First, there is increasing divergence of political will and legal authority on compliance. In the cases of Iran and Syria,
the IAEA has the necessary authority to request and carry out all-encompassing inspections without notice, but IAEA
member states do not have the political will to support the IAEA’s writ.
Second, the IAEA faces increasing demands on its time and expertise in carrying out safeguards and facilitating nuclear energy, but without accompanying budgetary growth. If the IAEA is to be effective in carrying out both responsibilities, it needs adequate financial support from member states.
Finally, there is a looming shortage of technical staff with the expertise to take on complex nuclear safeguards issues. Although the nuclear renaissance has spawned renewed interest in nuclear physics and engineering, including in the United States, there are currently too few students in the pipeline globally to meet the IAEA’s future staff requirements.
In the next decade, the IAEA will face increasing shortages of political, financial, and technical support. Without increases in all three, the current nuclear order may soon be characterized by disorder, with potential negative consequences across the globe.