There was never any shortage of attention paid to Kazakhstan by politicians and analysts. Interest in the country is on the increase today, due to changes looming on the horizon there and the emergence of new trends in its development. First in this context is the expected leadership change.
Alexey Malashenko analyzes the recent developments in Kazakhstan and the possible future of this country.
Key Conclusions:
- All of Kazakhstan’s politicians recognize the need for change, even those who are happy with the way things are now, or who find change difficult to initiate. Kazakhstan’s political elite is firmly set on change because it is the most essential condition for ensuring the elite’s continued rule.
- In 2011, Kazakhstan went through upheavals unprecedented in its independent history: an upsurge in Islamist activity, terrorist attacks, and the events in Zhanaozen, which claimed numerous lives. These events have all forced the ruling elite to give serious thought to economic and perhaps political change.
- An opposition has not emerged in Kazakhstani society. Neither the events in Zhanaozen nor the Islamist groups’ activeness have received broad public support. This is as much due to the preventive measures taken by the authorities as to Kazakhstani society simply not yet being ready for protest.
- Nazarbayev’s Nur Otan party won a convincing victory in the parliamentary election, as was expected. The election results were unchallenged, despite the irregularities that took place during the election preparations and the election itself.
- Although integration within the Eurasian Union seems to be progressing well, the future of Russia-Kazakhstan relations will depend in large part upon the domestic situation in both countries. There is the risk that in the event of crisis, Moscow (and Minsk) could resort to protectionist measures. Changes in domestic policy in Russia brought on by protests, as well as possible change in Kazakhstan, could also affect the two countries’ foreign policy and the development of their relations.