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Iran is ‘Years Away’ from a Nuclear Weapon

Concern over Iran’s nuclear program often ignores the fact that Iran is still a significant amount of time from actually acquiring a nuclear weapon. This leaves policymakers with ample time to engage in diplomacy and develop coercive sanctions.

published by
MSNBC's Morning Joe
 on March 9, 2012

Source: MSNBC's Morning Joe

Speaking on MSNBC's Morning Joe, Carnegie's Karim Sadjadpour stated that, as tensions between the Obama administration and Israel over Iran’s nuclear program continue, much discussion has focused on whether or not Iran can be counted on as a rational actor in international politics. Sadjadpour explained that “Iran is a rational actor in the sense that staying in power is paramount. The regime is homicidal but it is not suicidal.” However, it will ultimately prove extremely difficult to reach a modus vivendi with a regime that relies on anti-Americanism as an inextricable component of its ideology, Sadjadpour added.

One of the chief points of contention between the Obama administration and the Israelis centers on how far away Iran is from developing the capacity to weaponize its nuclear program. Sadjadpour said that the Iranians are at a minimum of two years before they will be able to have the bomb. “The reality is we often talk ourselves into hyperventilation on this issue, but there is still a significant amount of time to engage in diplomacy,”  he concluded.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.