Commentary
For a real example of political forces engaged in the militarization of society, the Russian leadership might consider looking closer to home.
James D.J. Brown
{
"authors": [
"Alexey Malashenko"
],
"type": "other",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Europe",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [
"Eurasia in Transition"
],
"regions": [
"Asia"
],
"topics": []
}
Source: Getty
Tajikistan: Civil War’s Long Echo
Tajikistan is among the most problematic countries in Central Asia. The country faces a number of challenges, including an economic crisis, regionalism, domestic political confrontation, and radical Islam.
Published on Apr 30, 2012
In terms of internal and external security, Tajikistan has been among the most problematic countries in Central Asia. It is the only state in the region to have gone through a protracted civil war (1992-1997), which, according to various estimates, killed between 23,500 and 100,000 people (perhaps even more) and left the economy in ruins. The causes of this war were rooted not only in political confrontation, but also in confrontation between different regions, clans, and personalities, as well as confrontation within Islam between those who sought to build a secular state and those who wanted an Islamic state.
In his new Briefing, Alexey Malashenko writes about the current situation in Tajikistan and the country’s possible developments.
Key Conclusions:
- After signing the Agreement on Peace and National Accord with the opposition in 1997, President Rakhmon set about building an authoritarian regime in Tajikistan.
- Today, the authorities face several internal challenges: an economic crisis, regionalism, domestic political confrontation, and radical Islam.
- It will be difficult, if not impossible, to organize “Maidan Tahrir”-type mass protests of the kind that took place on Cairo’s main square and toppled Hosni Mubarak’s regime in Egypt in the spring of 2011.
- None of the external players today has an interest in radically escalating the situation in the country, much less in provoking Tajikistan’s collapse. Russia hopes to keep the country within its sphere of influence by participating in key projects there and providing military aid.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Japan’s “Militarist Turn” and What It Means for Russia
- Subsea Communication Cables: Lessons from the PastResearch
Today, as Southeast Asia weighs its place in the expanding network of subsea fibre optic cables worldwide for the next few decades, it should recall its central role in linking the world two hundred years ago at the expense of its agency, independence, and sovereignty.
Elina Noor
- Embodied AI: China’s Big Bet on Smart RobotsPaper
Beijing believes that true AI dominance will come from systems capable of autonomous operation in the physical world—AI-powered robotics, or embodied AI.
Pavlo Zvenyhorodskyi, Scott Singer
- China’s Foreign Police Training: A Global FootprintPaper
New data reveal how China’s foreign police training programs have become an integral part of Beijing’s strategy to remake global security.
Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Isaac B. Kardon, Cameron Waltz
- China’s Accommodation of Taliban 2.0Paper
As both a neighboring country and a global power, China has been compelled to confront the reality of renewed Taliban rule in Afghanistan.
M. Ramin Mansoori
