Yukon Huang, Isaac B. Kardon, Matt Sheehan
{
"authors": [
"Yukon Huang"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie China"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie China",
"programAffiliation": "AP",
"programs": [
"Asia"
],
"projects": [
"Carnegie Oil Initiative"
],
"regions": [
"East Asia",
"China"
],
"topics": [
"Economy"
]
}Source: Getty
China Will Become a More "Normal" Economy
China will become more "normal" in 2013, moving away from its unbalanced, unsustainable, and uncoordinated economic structure. However, this will make China more susceptible to business cycles and could undermine its current authoritarian model.
Source: Financial Times

China was an abnormal economy with its state-led capitalist approach that produced double-digit growth rates, no major financial crises and average wage increases of 12 per cent annually for decades. But the drivers of this impressive economic transformation will no longer be available to the new leadership. Beijing cannot simply open the monetary floodgates to stimulate the economy as was done in previous downturns.
Rates of growth in the 7-8 per cent range will become the norm and the key question is whether growth will be of higher quality – more balanced, sustainable and coordinated?China is in fact already rebalancing – internally, externally and spatially. Internally, if consumption continues to increase at 9 per cent annually and investment growth declines from over 15 per cent to 6-7 per cent, the consumption and investment shares of the economy will become more “normal”. Externally, the current account balance will also continue to moderate as domestic demand increases with urbanisation and investors diversify by shifting more of their funds abroad. China will also become spatially more balanced as the interior will grow much faster than the coast and urbanisation will accelerate.
China’s growth can also be more financially and environmentally sustainable with further reforms. Actions to strengthen the banking sector are already underway but its fiscal system needs to be transformed to take on more responsibility for channeling resources. And China’s Five Year Plan provides a platform to achieve environmental sustainability by sharply increasing energy efficiency and curbing pollution.
In a normal market-driven economy, coordination is less about the state managing all key activities but more about strengthening its regulatory role to give the private sector room to spur innovation and efficiency.
But as a normal economy, China also becomes more vulnerable to business cycles. It can no longer maintain stability by controlling key economic prices such as interest and exchange rates and limiting capital movements. Its vested interests will be grounded less in the links between the Communist party and the state-owned banks and enterprises but as in the west China will become more vulnerable to private interests and “crony capitalism”.
Without state-led investment taking the lead, the economy will be susceptible to Keynesian risks of lack of demand. Corporate profits will be squeezed by higher interest rates and rising wages. Efficiency will be more important than capacity in the future.
Normality will also undermine the authoritarian nature of the old model which served China well when the priority was simply to push out more infrastructure investment and ensure that the requisite resources were available. China will now need a less heavy-handed administrative system that will promote entrepreneurship All this will call into question the existing governance system and may well prove to be the catalyst for far-reaching political reforms.
About the Author
Senior Fellow, Asia Program
Huang is a senior fellow in the Carnegie Asia Program where his research focuses on China’s economy and its regional and global impact.
- Three Takeaways From the Biden-Xi MeetingCommentary
- Europe Narrowly Navigates De-risking Between Washington and BeijingCommentary
Yukon Huang, Genevieve Slosberg
Recent Work
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Leveraging Internal Security Cooperation with Vietnam Offers a Glimpse of Future Chinese Diplomacy with Southeast AsiaArticle
Despite long-standing differences, China and Vietnam are reinforcing common ground for collaboration, especially in public security. This internal security–centered diplomacy offers a strengthened road map for how China moves forward with Southeast Asia.
Sophie Zhuang
- The Iran War’s Global ReachCollection
As the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran continues, Carnegie scholars contribute cutting-edge analysis on the events of the war and their wide-reaching implications. From the impact on Iran and its immediate neighbors to the responses from Gulf states to fuel and fertilizer shortages caused by the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, the war is reshaping Middle East alliances and creating shockwaves around the world. Carnegie experts analyze it all.
- Digital Hegemony and the Reification of Taiwan’s “Unification-Independence” DichotomyArticle
Governments now deploy online platforms to shape public opinion and influence collective cognition. This is acutely apparent between China and Taiwan.
Frank Cheng-Shan Liu
- China’s Energy Security Doesn’t Run Through Hormuz but Through the Electrification of EverythingCommentary
Across Asia, China is better positioned to withstand energy shocks from the fallout of the Iran war. Its abundant coal capacity can ensure stability in the near term. Yet at the same time, the country’s energy transition away from coal will make it even less vulnerable during the next shock.
Damien Ma
- Southeast Asia’s Agency Amid the New Oil CrisisCommentary
There is no better time for the countries of Southeast Asia to reconsider their energy security than during this latest crisis.
Gita Wirjawan