Source: CNN

Carnegie's Karim Sadjapour was recently on Fareed Zakaria's Global Public Square program on CNN to discuss the upcoming Iranian elections. The transcript is provided below.

ZAKARIA: Next week Iranians will head to the polls to elect a new president. The incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is ineligible to run, because he has already been elected twice. So who is likely to win? And what does it mean for Iran and the world?

I'm joined by two experts. Hooman Majd is the author of "The Ayatollah's Begs Defer" as well as "The Ayatollah's Democracy." And Karim Sadjadpour is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment. He was previously chief Iran analyst for the international crisis group. Welcome.

So Hooman, set the stage. What is the choice that an Iranian faces when looking at this array of candidates?

HOOMAN MAJD, AUTHOR: Well, I mean, there's eight candidates in the race, but probably two or three of them are the ones that are most likely to emerge as a winner. I think they have got a choice between continuing along the path that Iran has been on since 2009 certainly, but probably since 2005, and that's the Ahmadinejad very defiant -- the resistance path.

Or to pick someone slightly more moderate or even a lot more moderate, someone like the Cleric Hassad Rouhani, who is running who is a protege of Ayatollah Rafsanjani who was not allowed to run in this election, partly because of his support for the Green movement back in 2009.

ZAKARIA: And this is the sort of pragmatic wing of the...

MAJD: Correct.

ZAKARIA: Of the Iranian regime. Still very much a part of the regime...

MAJD: Part of the regime...

ZAKARIA: But pragmatic, worldly, thought to be quite corrupt in the sense of having lots of business dealings, but not the kind of hard liners.

MAJD: No the hard-line, yes, the absolute resistance to any kind of relations with the -- with particularly the United States, but even, you know, just the kind of resistance that Ahmadinejad has shown in the last eight years, it's like, the defiance of the international community, not worrying about the consequences, not worrying about the economy even, the consequences to the economy which affect voters' pocketbooks.

ZAKARIA: And on the other side is Jalili, who represents, in effect, really the continuation of that hard line strategy.

MADJ: Very much so. But even -- and less socially liberal than Ahmadinejad even and more pious than Ahmadinejad, and more of an -- has more of an allegiance to the supreme leader than Ahmadinejad has shown certainly in the last three or four years.

ZAKARIA: Karim, do these distinctions between these two strike you as important?

KARIM SADJADPOUR, SENIOR ASSOCIATE, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR PEACE: Not terribly, Fareed. I preface all of my comments by saying that Iranian presidential elections tend to be unfree, unfair and unpredictable. But this time around is more predictable in the past and that it's increasingly looking like it will be one man, one vote and that man is the Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader.

And I think what he's done is rig the candidates in advance. Eight candidates, all of whom he's okay with. And I would compare it somewhat akin to having a presidential election in the United States in which only members of the Tea Party can participate.

So there is diversity amongst the candidates. There is competition in that all of them want to be president. But none of the fundamental issues in Iran have been raised. You know, why are we supporting as Bashar al-Assad in Syria? Why are we spending billions of dollars in Syria when we could be spending that money at home? Why are we pursuing this retrograde nuclear program which has cost us over $100 billion in economic sanctions and lost foreign investment when we could be pursuing a more conciliatory global approach.

So those types of questions aren't being raised in this election.

MAJD: I would disagree with that. Actually they are being raised. Rouhani is one of the people, and so is RJ (ph), who has actually raised all those -- he's raised civil rights. He's even raised the nuclear issue. And if you look at his Twitter feed, you'll see where he has been raising it. And in his debates, he has raised that. He has raised the Assad issue. He said, you know, we should evaluate -- as has Rafsanjani as well.

So I do think there is a choice. I'm not saying it's a completely free and fair election like it would be in what we consider to be a democratic process in the United States or in the western world, but there is a choice. There is a choice that is a distinct choice. Now it may not be to the preference of many Iranian citizens, many Iranian citizens want to see much greater reforms, whether social, economic or political reforms. But it does represent a difference.

Now, whether -- there are a lot of questions to be asked here. Whether -- if Rouhani even is able to get some excitement into the campaign where people do come out and vote, the middle class particularly and the youth come out and vote, and if there is a huge turnout as there was in 2009 which at this point looks very unlikely. It seems like the streets in Iran are very quiet, there's not much campaigning going on. If that were to happen, will he be allowed to be proclaimed the winner.

So there are other issues, or what other obstacles are going to be put in his way?

ZAKARIA: What does that quiet tell you, Karim, because I'm struck by that, that there seems to be no protest about this very rigged set of candidates. The two candidates who seem slightly more unpredictable, Rafsanjani the 80-year-old doan (ph) of the kind of pragmatic movement, but also Mashaei, who was Ahmadinejad's deputy chief of staff who seemed sort of his own man and somewhat opposed to the clerical establishment at least, were both ruled out.

Does this mean that Ayatollah Khamenei, despite being what the longest serving dictator in the Middle East now, is completely in charge? The Green Movement has been crushed and is quiet?

SADJADPOUR: Fareed, I will say this about Iranian society, that in 1979 Iranians experienced the revolution without democracy. And I think today they aspire for a democracy without a revolution.

And so I think they've -- it's the society has reached an impasse in that they don't have -- they have revolutionary ends, they would like to see fundamental change in the same way that much of the Middle East would like to see, fundamental change, but they don't have the stomach to pursue revolutionary means.

And in this sense I think that what's taken place, especially in Syria, has actually had a dampening effect in Iran, because, you know, 100,000 people killed, a quarter of the population displaced. No one in Iran has an appetite for that type of tumult.

And I think Ayatollah Khamenei in some ways is taking advantage of that. So he's now set up a situation in which almost every single major institution in Iran, whether it's the Revolutionary Guards, the Guardian Council, the Assembly of Experts, all of these Byzantine bodies, are led by individuals who are either appointed by him directly or unfailingly obsequious to him.

And for that reason, I find it tough to believe -- and we'll see what happens, but I find it tough to believe that he will allow the presidency to go to an individual whom he's not totally comfortable with.

ZAKARIA: Any change on nuclear policy if Rouhani were elected?

SADJADPOUR: I think there could be cosmetic changes. You will have a president who wouldn't be denying the Holocaust and calling for Israel's demise. And frankly, Fareed, I think the person who may miss Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the most is Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, because he has to figure that, you know, if Iran is going to be continue to be led by the Supreme Leader, who is going to continue to have veto power over the nuclear issue and other major decisions, it's better to have an Iranian president who is very blusterous and rallies the world against Iran rather than a more moderate face like Hassan Rouhani who may cause the Russians, Europeans and Chinese to say let's have another shot at engagement.

ZAKARIA: Fascinating conversation. Thank you both.

This transcript was originaly published on CNN.