Source: PBS’ NewsHour
GWEN IFILL: The Islamic State’s gruesome attacks in Libya over the weekend raises the specter that the militant group is expanding beyond Syria and Iraq. We take a look at that now with Frederic Wehrey the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He’s recently returned from a trip to Libya. And Michael Leiter, he was the director of the National Counterterrorism Center from 2007 to 2011. And he is now the executive vice president at Leidos, a science and technology company specializing in national security issues. Michael Leiter, what are we to take from this particular move into Libya? This seems like an expansion of the footprint we have become familiar with, with ISIL.
MICHAEL LEITER: Former Director, National Counterterrorism Center: That’s right, Gwen. And we have really seen this expansion beyond just Libya. ISIS has over the past several months gained some foot holds in Egypt to the east in the Sinai Peninsula, as well as smaller elements in Algeria, in Afghanistan and South Asia. And I think what this fundamentally shows is that we have a message which is resonating extremely effectively with its adherence and also it’s highlighting the real security vacuum that we have in many of these places. And, in Libya, that is really most obvious. The breakdown of civil society and government authority in Libya since the fall of Gadhafi in 2011 has allowed, with a lack of security services, elements of ISIS associates, now three different groups in Libya, to really take charge and perpetrate these incredibly gruesome and horrific events.
GWEN IFILL: Frederic Wehrey, you’re back not too long ago from Libya. Is something which was — are they taking advantage of this vacuum, as Michael Leiter was discussing just now, that exists because of the internal civil unrest and governance problems that are going on in Libya?
FREDERIC WEHREY: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Absolutely. I mean, this is a country that’s tearing itself apart. There are essentially two different governments. The country’s ruled by a patchwork of militias. You have entire areas of the country that are veritable no-go zones. Some of these areas in the east are longtime hotbeds for extremism. Many of them had al-Qaida affiliates. What we’re seeing now is that the Islamic State is really moving in and siphoning away a lot of these al-Qaida folks and moving them over to the Islamic State. It’s a very appealing brand right now in Libya.GWEN IFILL: Michael Leiter, why Coptic Christians? Is it that they are Egyptian, is that they were Christian? Were they targeted in a particular way?
MICHAEL LEITER: Well, a little bit of both. Coptic Christians have, very regrettably, been targeted both in Egypt after the fall of Mohammed Morsi — many in Egypt believe that Christians were behind some of that — as well Coptic Christians have been targeted specifically in Libya before. So they have been under real threat. In my view, Coptic Christians are an even more attractive threat — or a more attractive target to ISIS than other groups, but in truth ISIS targets go well beyond Coptic Christians, as we have obviously seen in Iraq and Syria with the burning of the Jordanian pilot. In their view, if you are not strictly aligned with their ideology, be it Muslim, Christian or someone else, you really are one who will be targeted.
GWEN IFILL: Frederic Wehrey, let’s go to Egypt’s role in this. How significant is it that they now been drawn front and center into this growing conflict, if we can call it that, with ISIL?
FREDERIC WEHREY: Well, it’s certainly a bold intervention, airstrikes on these camps in Eastern Libya. But it’s not the first time that they have been involved in Libya. Last year, there were reports of them sending special operations team across the border. They have been secretly supporting one faction in the civil war, the so-called faction that is against the Islamists. They have been providing it with intelligence and logistical support. So this is really a visible expression of something that they have been doing for quite some time. Now, will it have any effect? We know from history that airpower alone is not decisive in rooting out these sorts of groups.
GWEN IFILL: Let me ask — let me go back to Michael Leiter on this, too, because I wonder whether the degree is — the degree of response is going to create a greater response? Are we now seeing — is the Islamic State beginning to be kind of a hydra-headed organization that can spray terror wherever it wants, or is there some sort of goal?
MICHAEL LEITER: Well, I think, unfortunately, it really has, Gwen. What we were so fearful about really two or three years ago, as we saw the conflict in Iraq and Syria grow, was regional instability, and we are seeing that. We are seeing that with more vehemence and the fight on the Jordanian side into Syria, which is obviously part of our coalition. But now we’re seeing that instability spread to North Africa in a very problematic way. And I think it’s going to be difficult for the Egyptians not to remain involved and potentially get even more involved. They have this problem again to their east in the Sinai and they have the same problem now to the west. And I think General Sisi views this as a fight that he cannot avoid. And I expect that we will see continued airstrikes. And I don’t think it’s impossible that we might see some Egyptian troops moving into Eastern Libya to try to provide some sort of security space for the region.
GWEN IFILL: Frederic Wehrey, does this complicate the U.S. plan to degrade the Islamic State, now that Egypt is involved, or does it back us, does it give us a little bit more support for that?
FREDERIC WEHREY: Well, it’s really conflicted. I mean, on the one hand, they are attacking these camps, but the U.S. position all along has been, is that this is a civil war and that any outside interference, outside support to the warring factions is unhelpful. The U.S. is supporting a U.N.-sponsored peace initiative to try to bring the warring factions to the table. And so outside interference, I think, really harms that. So in the long run, I think the — defeating the ISIS threat in Libya is best served by a comprehensive peace agreement between the warring factions, coming up with a unity government, unifying the security forces and then assisting the forces to go after this terrorist threat.
GWEN IFILL: Michael Leiter, what does ISIL, the Islamic State, ISIS, however we’re referring to it today, what do they aspire to in these kinds of shocking and riveting actions, especially when they show up, pop up in another country?
MICHAEL LEITER: Well, they have both tactical and strategic goals. Tactically, they simply believe that it is their duty to kill these individuals. They are so abhorrent to their vision that they deserve to die and they believe that they are defending their vision of the Muslim Ummah, the Muslim people throughout North Africa and the Middle East, and this is their fight, in the same way that Syria — ISIL in Syria is also believing that they should also kill people like the Jordanians who are bombing them. That’s the tactical, but the strategic is still a vision for a broader caliphate which will be ruled under ISIL’s banner. And I think what we see from Libya across to Syria and into Iraq is that this does have some resonance and it is causing real regional instability, not to mention the threat of individuals who are either inspired by or directed by ISIL who are traveling back to the West, whether we have seen it in France, potentially seen it in Copenhagen. This is a hydra. And it is going that is going to take some time in the region and globally to really effectively counter.
GWEN IFILL: Michael Leiter, Frederic Wehrey, thank you both very much.
FREDERIC WEHREY: Thank you.
MICHAEL LEITER: Thank you.