Q&A
Suzanne Maloney, Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour
{
"authors": [
"Karim Sadjadpour"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Middle East",
"Iran",
"Saudi Arabia",
"Gulf"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Security"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Iranian Military Blames Saudi Arabia For Tehran Terror Attack
The recent terrorist attack in Tehran is evidence that Iran is not immune to the effects of the ongoing regional turmoil.
Published on Jun 7, 2017
Source: NPR’s All Things Considered
ROBERT SIEGEL, HOST:
Karim Sadjadpour is a Middle East expert and Iran watcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Welcome to the program once again.
KARIM SADJADPOUR: Great to be here, Robert.
SIEGEL: As we've heard, this is the so-called Islamic State's first strike - big strike inside Iran. Why, and why do you think now?
SADJADPOUR: Well, I suspect that ISIS had tried for years to launch an attack within Iran, but it's not easy for them because Iran is a country which is more than 90 percent Shiite. And the city of Tehran is probably upwards of 95 percent Shiite. So ISIS doesn't have the same sympathy and potential recruits in Iran as it does in the predominantly Sunni Arab world.
SIEGEL: You said that ISIS has been trying probably for years to strike at Iran. Why - just because Iran is the great Shiite power? For what reason?
SADJADPOUR: There is tremendous anger in the Sunni Muslim, Sunni Arab world against Iran and Iran's role in the Middle East given Iran's support for the Assad regime in Syria which is responsible for so many civilian casualties of Sunnis - likewise Iran's support for the previous Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, and Shia militias in Iraq. So at a popular level in the Sunni Arab world, there's huge animosity towards Iran. And I suspect if ISIS is trying to recruit people and to somewhat rehabilitate its reputation, an attack on the main adversary of Sunni Muslims, which is Iran, is a way of regaining some popular support.
SIEGEL: As Peter Kenyon reported for us, Iran has all but said that Saudi Arabia played some role in this attack. Does that sound plausible to you?
SADJADPOUR: I don't think it's plausible. Iran does conflate ISIS and Saudi Arabia. But the reality is that ISIS poses an even graver threat to Saudi Arabia than it does to Iran. I think the advantage Iran has in the Middle East is that Shiite radical groups, whether it's Hezbollah in Lebanon or Shia militias in Iraq or the Houthi groups in Yemen - those are groups which are loyal to the Iranian government.
But Sunni radical groups, whether that's ISIS or al-Qaida, really seek to overthrow the Saudi government. So I think that demonizing Saudi Arabia plays well in Iran. Whether you're a secular Iranian living in Los Angeles or an Iranian religious cleric living in Qom, Persian nationalism is very opposed to Saudi Arabia. But I don't think it's plausible that Saudi Arabia was behind this attack.
SIEGEL: Peter Kenyon reports that the Iranians are usually very proud of their security and being an island of safety from terrorism in the region. Does this attack strike a blow at something important to the way Iranians see their country?
SADJADPOUR: Well, Iran has been heavily involved in the Syrian conflict over the last six years. It's given tens of billions of dollars to the Assad regime, which is complicit in over half a million casualties, 12 million Syrians displaced, women and children being gassed. And so I think it was fanciful that Iran could have that level of involvement in such a devastating crisis and expect to be immune to the effects of that.
But I don't see this ISIS attack in Iran having a moderating effect on Iran's regional policies. I actually think that they will use this as a pretext to continue their support for Bashar Assad and Shia militias under the pretext of it's better to have the fight against ISIS outside Iran's borders than within Iran's borders.
SIEGEL: Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, thanks for talking with us once again.
SADJADPOUR: It was my pleasure, Robert.
About the Author
Karim Sadjadpour
Senior Fellow, Middle East Program
Karim Sadjadpour is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy toward the Middle East.
- Iran Wanted to Survive the War. Now What?
- What’s Keeping the Iranian Regime in Power—for NowQ&A
Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour, Robin Wright
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Nuclear Deterrence Needs to Account for Domestic PoliticsArticle
Individual leaders and public attitudes—especially in democracies—matter for credibility.
Lauren Sukin, Samuel Seitz
- Could Nuclear Warheads Really Be Deployed to the Baltic States?Commentary
Latvia and Lithuania have been considering whether they could temporarily host NATO nuclear weapons in the event of war or a similar crisis.
Sergejs Potapkins
- Europe Struggles to Sustain Support for UkraineArticle
EU and member-state leaders will need to show the political will and flexibility to adjust to Ukraine’s changing needs and to find compromises that will put support on a sustainable, long-term footing.
Phyllis Berry
- Planetary Power: Geoengineering and the New Geopolitics of Climate InterventionResearch
Geoengineering is becoming a geopolitical question as much as a climate one. The way states and the private sector pursue these technologies, assess risks, and drive research increasingly appears focused on gaining a strategic edge. In a field where governance in lagging behind, Europe should keep track of the geopolitical implications if it is to develop effective regulatory frameworks.
Olivia Lazard, ed.
- The Twilight of Oil in an Age of Uncertainty: From a Vicious to a Virtuous CyclePaper
The global hydrocarbon order is changing. Economic diversification and developing productive economies have become essential for Middle Eastern and North African states, requiring them to address social and political challenges and rethink domestic, regional, and global settlements.
- +1
Nur Arafeh, Ishac Diwan, Hamza Meddeb, …
