Frederic Wehrey, Charles H. Johnson
{
"authors": [
"Frederic Wehrey"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "MEP",
"programs": [
"Middle East"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Middle East",
"Lebanon",
"Saudi Arabia",
"Gulf",
"Levant"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Democracy"
]
}Source: Getty
Crown Prince’s Power Grab Poses New Regional Risks
The sweeping arrest of royals and officials in Saudi Arabia has removed many of the last checks and balances to executive power in the country.
Source: Axios
In Saudi Arabia, foreign and domestic policy have long been intertwined: Royals use diplomacy to consolidate legitimacy at home but also to solicit consensus from Saudi elites that acts to buttress their policies abroad. All that has now changed.
In seizing vast executive powers, as in this weekend's sweeping arrest of royals and officials, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is undoing the last of those checks and balances — princely economic and security fiefdoms that acted as countervailing influences. He has freed himself to engage in ill-fated confrontations abroad that dilute Saudi power, exposing the kingdom to greater military threats and scaring off investors.
Complicating matters further, the crown prince has opened too many fronts at once: military entanglement in Yemen, a blockade of Qatar, and a campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood. Most recently, he has accused Lebanon of being a hostile power because of the dominance of the pro-Iranian group Hezbollah.
Why it matters: By risking instability and even open conflict, these moves undermine Saudi Arabia's power and play to the strengths of its regional rivals. Iran in particular thrives on disarray in the Middle East, and its militant proxies far outmatch the kingdom's.
About the Author
Senior Fellow, Middle East Program
Frederic Wehrey is a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where his research focuses on governance, conflict, and security in Libya, North Africa, and the Persian Gulf.
- Parallel Climate Reckonings: Colonial Water Legacies and Indigenous Adaptation, from Morocco to the American WestArticle
- The Iran War Is a Stress Test for Gulf StatesCommentary
Frederic Wehrey, Charles H. Johnson
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Multiple Wars Are Ruining Central Asia’s Efforts to Diversify Its Trade RoutesCommentary
This year’s wars have made alternative routes to transit through Russia no less risky for Central Asian countries.
Galiya Ibragimova
- Iran Wanted to Survive the War. Now What?Commentary
The United States and Israel may have unwittingly revived the Islamic Republic’s “zombie regime.”
Suzanne Maloney, Aaron David Miller, Karim Sadjadpour
- Taking the Pulse: Is European Diplomacy on Iran Outdated?Commentary
When the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding was announced, the UK, France, Germany, and Italy declared their readiness to help demine the Strait of Hormuz and lift nuclear sanctions on Tehran. But does Europe need new tools to recover a diplomatic role?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
- Lebanon Should Try to Place Hezbollah on the U.S.-Iran TableCommentary
As talks begin between Washington and Tehran, Beirut has an opening to advance a regional plan for the party’s disarmament.
Michael Young
- Loyal but Powerless: The Downgrading of Russia’s ElitePaper
The ruling elites in contemporary Russia are not a political class, but a community of managers who are not subject to competition or public accountability. The state is becoming an operating apparatus without any internal autonomy.
Alexandra Prokopenko