Commentary
Alexander Baunov
{
"authors": [
"Alexander Baunov"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Russia’s Political Class as Concerned About Helsinki Summit as America’s
Any agreement that results in rapprochement with the West may provide some economic growth from sanctions relief, but it may also shift balance of power within the Russian political establishment from the powerful hawks to the system’s liberals.
Published on Jul 15, 2018
Source: Axios
Many critics of President Trump's foreign policy believe he is giving Russian President Vladimir Putin a gift by agreeing to a summit while ignoring sources of tension such as the annexation of Crimea and foreign election meddling. But a chummy photo op goes a very short way to meeting Putin’s actual needs.
Reality check: In his fourth and final term, Putin is focused on domestic priorities such as lifting the economy out of stagnation, improving infrastructure and raising the retirement age to ease social-program budgets. Sanctions and a toxic international environment are big obstacles to these plans. To deliver on this agenda, he needs Trump to deliver on a calmer foreign-policy and business environment.
The Russian angle: Russia’s political class and its allies are as concerned about the Helsinki summit as their American counterparts. The hawks in Moscow think Putin is ready to exchange part of Russia’s political and military resurgence — perhaps through concessions in Donbas and Syria — to ease sanctions and spur economic growth.
Conservatives in the Russian security establishment want to ensure that Western nations can’t mobilize a unified, anti-Russian front. They like the fact that the West is split and see Trump as widening this divide — with his disregard for U.S. allies and NATO, including the previously unthinkable collapse of U.S.–German relations. Satisfaction with the status quo is why many Russians oppose major new agreements with Trump’s White House.
The bottom line: Any agreement that results in rapprochement with the West may provide some economic growth from sanctions relief, but it may also shift balance of power within the Russian political establishment from the powerful hawks to the system’s liberals.
About the Author
Alexander Baunov
Senior Fellow, Editor-in-Chief, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Baunov is a senior fellow and editor-in-chief at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
- Animal Tested by Leonid Bershidsky: A Utopian Novel for the Instagram Age
- In Russia, the Public Mood Is SouringCommentary
Alexander Baunov
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- The U.S. and China Need an AI Hotline. Here’s How to Build It.Commentary
It should address the shortcomings of previous crisis communication efforts and adapt to the demands of frontier AI.
Lucy Luo
- The UN Isn’t Declining. It’s Decomposing.Commentary
Washington’s decision to support some UN functions while letting others wither is pulling the organization apart at the seams.
Stewart Patrick, Theodore Zaritsky
- Taking the Pulse: Does the EU Have a Germany Problem?Commentary
Are Germany’s economic, industrial, and political struggles becoming a liability for the EU’s ability to rise to the geopolitical moment?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
- China’s Construction of Police Training Facilities in Global South Likely to Expand Global Security LeadershipResearch
China’s police training infrastructure construction projects provide benefits to recipient countries, promote China’s image as a major global security provider, and are likely to reinforce alignment between Beijing’s security priorities and those of countries in the Global South.
- +2
Cameron Waltz, Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Kim Nguyen, …
- BIS in the New Age of Import ControlsCommentary
The Bureau of Industry and Security needs to adjust its focus and practices to maintain its position as the U.S. government’s primary champion of international technological competition.
Geoffrey Irving
