For Asia, at Least, This Is Not the Depression

{
  "authors": [
    "Trinh Nguyen"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "AP",
  "programs": [
    "Asia"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "South Asia",
    "East Asia"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Economy",
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}

In The Media

For Asia, at Least, This Is Not the Depression

Mobility restrictions, especially in economies dependent on domestic demand such as India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, have suppressed already shy spenders.

By Trinh Nguyen

Published on Jun 4, 2020

Source: Financial Times

Economic data is frightful right now — from retail sales to exports, growth engines are sputtering sharply. After a supply shock from China’s factory closures in February, Asia is confronting both domestic and external demand shocks in the second quarter. Mobility restrictions, especially in economies dependent on domestic demand such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines, have suppressed already shy spenders. Even in countries with “normalised” mobility, self-restraint has left shopkeepers wanting. Missing tourists, falling export sales, weakening remittances and cautious foreign investors have put income pressure on current account deficit economies, and even excess-saving ones such as China, Singapore and Thailand.

Read the Full Text

This article was originally published by Financial Times.

About the Author

Trinh Nguyen

Former Nonresident Scholar, Asia Program

Trinh Nguyen was a nonresident scholar in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Recent Work

Research
BRICS Expansion and the Future of World Order: Perspectives from Member States, Partners, and Aspirants
- +16
  Stewart Patrick, Erica Hogan, Oliver Stuenkel, …
Commentary
Indonesia’s Controversial Fuel Price Hike Was Actually Necessary
- Trinh Nguyen

Economy Foreign Policy South Asia East Asia

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Commentary
Strategic Europe
Taking the Pulse: Is it NATO’s Job to Support Trump’s War of Choice?
Donald Trump has demanded that European allies send ships to the Strait of Hormuz while his war of choice in Iran rages on. He has constantly berated NATO while the alliance’s secretary-general has emphatically supported him.
Rym Momtaz, ed.
Commentary
Europe Is Falling Behind in General-Purpose Robotics. Here’s What It Can Do to Catch Up.
The continent needs to improve conditions for production of complete AI robotic systems and preserve its edge in hardware.
Pavlo Zvenyhorodskyi
Research
India and a Changing Global Order: Foreign Policy in the Trump 2.0 Era
Trump 2.0 has unsettled India’s external environment—but has not overturned its foreign policy strategy, which continues to rely on diversification, hedging, and calibrated partnerships across a fractured order.
+6
Milan Vaishnav, ed., Sameer Lalwani, Tanvi Madan, …
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Lukashenko’s Bromance With Trump Has a Sell-By Date
Lukashenko is willing to make big sacrifices for an invitation to Mar-a-Lago or the White House. He also knows that the clock is ticking: he must squeeze as much out of the Trump administration as he can before congressional elections in November leave Trump hamstrung or distracted.
Artyom Shraibman
Collection
The Middle Power Moment?
The world has entered an era of upheaval—a period of heightened geopolitical rivalry, deepening political polarization, quickening technological change, glaring economic inequality, accelerating environmental crises, and eroding respect for international law. This moment of disruption and fluidity is also one of opportunity, however. It provides openings for middle powers, both established and emerging, to exercise unaccustomed agency and influence the future of global order.
Carnegie scholars are analyzing middle power responses to this moment of upheaval and assessing whether—and under what conditions—these states can contribute to practical problem solving. They are asking critical, concrete questions: What countries, precisely, are we talking about when we refer to middle powers? In what issue areas do their priorities converge and diverge, including across North-South divides? In what domains can middle powers pack a punch, rather than produce a whimper? Are they willing to shoulder actual burdens and responsibility? Finally, how can middle powers assert themselves globally, without running afoul of or threatening their relations with the United States or China?

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Commentary

Strategic Europe

Taking the Pulse: Is it NATO’s Job to Support Trump’s War of Choice?

Donald Trump has demanded that European allies send ships to the Strait of Hormuz while his war of choice in Iran rages on. He has constantly berated NATO while the alliance’s secretary-general has emphatically supported him.

Rym Momtaz, ed.

A white humanoid robot with a black head and hips stands behind a rope barrier. It stands with its feet apart, knees bent, and elbows raised at its sides.

Commentary

Europe Is Falling Behind in General-Purpose Robotics. Here’s What It Can Do to Catch Up.

The continent needs to improve conditions for production of complete AI robotic systems and preserve its edge in hardware.

Pavlo Zvenyhorodskyi

Research

India and a Changing Global Order: Foreign Policy in the Trump 2.0 Era

Trump 2.0 has unsettled India’s external environment—but has not overturned its foreign policy strategy, which continues to rely on diversification, hedging, and calibrated partnerships across a fractured order.

- +6
Milan Vaishnav, ed., Sameer Lalwani, Tanvi Madan, …

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Lukashenko’s Bromance With Trump Has a Sell-By Date

Lukashenko is willing to make big sacrifices for an invitation to Mar-a-Lago or the White House. He also knows that the clock is ticking: he must squeeze as much out of the Trump administration as he can before congressional elections in November leave Trump hamstrung or distracted.

Artyom Shraibman

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, wearing an orange cap, and the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath, dressed in saffron robes, are greeting supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) during a roadshow ahead of the Indian General Elections in Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh, India, on April 6, 2024.

Collection

The Middle Power Moment?

The world has entered an era of upheaval—a period of heightened geopolitical rivalry, deepening political polarization, quickening technological change, glaring economic inequality, accelerating environmental crises, and eroding respect for international law. This moment of disruption and fluidity is also one of opportunity, however. It provides openings for middle powers, both established and emerging, to exercise unaccustomed agency and influence the future of global order.

Carnegie scholars are analyzing middle power responses to this moment of upheaval and assessing whether—and under what conditions—these states can contribute to practical problem solving. They are asking critical, concrete questions: What countries, precisely, are we talking about when we refer to middle powers? In what issue areas do their priorities converge and diverge, including across North-South divides? In what domains can middle powers pack a punch, rather than produce a whimper? Are they willing to shoulder actual burdens and responsibility? Finally, how can middle powers assert themselves globally, without running afoul of or threatening their relations with the United States or China?