U.S.-China ties are the defining major power relationship of this century. Though important as interactions between the United States and China are, their consequences and influences do not just affect these two countries. The manner through which Washington and Beijing compete and collaborate will reverberate across the Pacific and beyond. Indeed, other actors can inform the terms of the contemporary U.S.-China relationship. The choices regional governments and organizations make, or avoid, can impact relations among major powers. Regional contexts where U.S. and Chinese interests intersect help establish conditions that can augment or diminish incentives for contestation and cooperation. Historically a conduit for global cultural, religious, and commercial flows, Southeast Asia is today one of the most important settings where major power contention and, perhaps, accommodation will play out. Here, regional actors may collectively have some say on how these events unfold.
Much of the discussion about U.S.-China relations tends to focus on perspectives from Washington and Beijing—even when considering developments on the ground in places like Southeast Asia. As the more powerful actors, the United States and China have an advantage in shaping regional dynamics. Critical as the views from Washington and Beijing may be, they often under-appreciate the range and depth of concerns about the United States and China that affect Southeast Asian countries and societies. Issues locals and regional capitals care about—from the environment to inequality, communal ties, nationalism, and autonomy—could provide opportunities for cooperation with major powers or become sensitive areas that result in resistance and even blowback. Such developments could well affect Washington and Beijing’s relative positions in a single country or the broader region, sharpen mutual suspicions, and exacerbate security dilemmas.
My research examines how shifting U.S.-China relations play out in Southeast Asia and how regional dynamics influence the tenor of ties between Washington and Beijing. Divergent economic, security, and other priorities, in the face of intensifying U.S.-China contestation, pull Southeast Asian states in disparate directions despite their assertions of “ASEAN centrality,” attempts to hedge, and hopes to avoid choosing sides. Differing positions across Southeast Asia may encourage Washington and Beijing to compete for friendships while putting pressure on governments whose sympathies they dislike. Such currents may prove consequential for everything from commercial arrangements to military and security cooperation, contributing to major power suspicions, intra-regional divisions, and domestic political machinations. These dynamics make Southeast Asia key to the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry and any potential conciliation in the future.
Through my work with Carnegie China, I seek to build on conversations that highlight the different forces acting on Southeast Asia as they relate to the U.S.-China relationship. The region is highly diverse and historically a forum for global exchange, but often not seen on its own terms by analysts outside the region. Southeast Asia straddles the Indian and Pacific Oceans that lend their names to various Indo-Pacific initiatives but also connect vast commercial and social networks linking Europe, Africa, and South Asia with East Asia, Oceania, and the west coast of the Americas. This makes the region critical to the U.S.-China relationship whether in peace and cooperation or in competition and conflict, even if regional states and organizations individually can do little to fundamentally change bilateral interactions between Washington and Beijing on their own. I hope that introducing voices, concerns, and perspectives from Southeast Asia can perhaps pave the way for more effective ways to engage with the region and manage ties in a more competitive world.