• Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Global logoCarnegie lettermark logo
Democracy
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Rizal Sukma"
  ],
  "type": "commentary",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie China"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Carnegie China Commentaries"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie China",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Southeast Asia"
  ],
  "topics": []
}
Commentary
Carnegie China

Prabowo’s Diplomatic Debut in China and Japan

Indonesia’s foreign policy will not fundamentally change except in one respect—it will have a more active president managing its foreign policy.

Link Copied
By Rizal Sukma
Published on Apr 18, 2024

This publication is a product of Carnegie China. For more work by Carnegie China, click here.

A few days after he was confirmed as Indonesia’s president-elect, Prabowo Subianto surprised many when he traveled to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) at the invitation of President Xi Jinping. In Beijing, Prabowo held talks with Xi, Prime Minister Li Qiang, and Minister of Defense Dong Jun before flying to Tokyo for a meeting with Japan’s prime minister and defense minister. After Tokyo, he traveled to Kuala Lumpur for a meeting with the prime minister of Malaysia—a neighbor and fellow member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with whom Indonesia shares many cultural traits and strategic interests.

Prabowo’s visits to Beijing and Tokyo were the ones that captured headlines. The messages conveyed by Prabowo from the two visits are strikingly similar in tone and substance. In Beijing, he reaffirmed that China is a partner of strategic importance and pledged that he would continue outgoing President Joko Widodo’s push to strengthen bilateral relations between the two countries. In Tokyo, Prabowo stressed that Indonesia also sees Japan as a longtime strategic partner and pledged that he would deepen security and economic cooperation with Japan.

The back-to-back visits suggest that Prabowo wanted to avoid the impression that he favors one country over the other—that China and Japan are Indonesia’s key partners and close friends, and he wants to work closer with both. This demonstrates the strong impulse in Indonesia, regardless of who is the president, to stay true to the sacrosanct principle of bebas-aktif (free and active) in its foreign policy.

Until now, no Indonesian president-elect has ever formally visited another country between election and inauguration. Beijing seems to have wanted assurance as early as possible from Prabowo that his government would continue Widodo’s friendly policies, which Prabowo did. In return, Prabowo received China’s pledge for continued support for Indonesia’s economic interests.

China is an important source of foreign investment for Indonesia, the second largest at $7.4 billion in 2023 after Singapore, followed by Hong Kong at $6.5 billion. China is also Indonesia’s top trading partner at $65.9 billion in 2022. Even though Japan has become the third largest trading partner and fourth largest investor, it still is a strong player in Indonesia’s economy.

The timing also matters. It would be difficult for China to expect Prabowo to visit Beijing immediately after his inauguration on October 20—especially when Prabowo is scheduled to visit Peru for the APEC Summit and Brazil for the G-20 summit in early November. During that trip, a stop in Washington also is likely and would provide an opportunity for the new president to emphasize Indonesia’s willingness to foster close relations with the United States.

Building a relationship with China, however, has always been a challenging task for any Indonesian government. Although Jakarta has become more comfortable in dealing with Beijing over the years, traces of anti-China sentiments still linger. For example, domestic public sentiments and concerns over the growing economic relationship with China often serve as an impediment to close bilateral ties between the two countries. The main concerns relate to China’s migrant workers and the country’s heavy reliance on China for its economic development, especially in the mining sector.

Coupled with rising nationalism at home, these sentiments and concerns could fuel strong nationalist responses to China’s incursion into Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone in the North Natuna Sea and deepen Indonesia’s suspicion of China and Beijing’s intention. Indonesia has consistently expressed its position that China’s nine-dashed line has no legal basis in international law, and China’s intrusion into Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone reflects Beijing’s intention to control the resources in the area.

Prabowo will need to address these constraints. Indonesia under Prabowo will continue to prioritize economic development, and that means economic cooperation with China is of paramount importance for Indonesia. The meeting between Prabowo and Xi would hopefully provide mutual assurance between the two leaders that they would work to manage the challenges in bilateral relationship. If the relationship is to move forward, mutual understanding of each other’s expectation and views, and the commitment to address the relationship’s challenges will be key.

It is likely that Indonesia will be more active in building and managing a balanced relationship with great and major powers, as evidenced by Prabowo’s visit to Japan, which is a staunch ally of the United States. Indonesia is keen to strengthen ties with Washington, but it remains to be seen how Prabowo will navigate that relationship.

The stop in Kuala Lumpur also reaffirms the importance of ASEAN in Indonesia’s foreign policy. However, whether ASEAN will continue to serve as the cornerstone of Indonesia’s foreign policy or just a cornerstone remains to be seen. But through the three visits, Prabowo delivered one clear message: Indonesia’s foreign policy will not fundamentally change except in one respect—it will have a more active president in managing its foreign policy.

Rizal Sukma

Rizal Sukma is a senior fellow at CSIS Jakarta.

Rizal Sukma
Southeast Asia

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  • Commentary
    Malaysia’s Year as ASEAN Chair: Managing Disorder

    Malaysia’s chairmanship sought to fend off short-term challenges while laying the groundwork for minimizing ASEAN’s longer-term exposure to external stresses.

      Elina Noor

  • Commentary
    When It Comes to Superpower Geopolitics, Malaysia Is Staunchly Nonpartisan

    For Malaysia, the conjunction that works is “and” not “or” when it comes to the United States and China.

      Elina Noor

  • Commentary
    ASEAN-China Digital Cooperation: Deeper but Clear-Eyed Engagement

    ASEAN needs to determine how to balance perpetuating the benefits of technology cooperation with China while mitigating the risks of getting caught in the crosshairs of U.S.-China gamesmanship.

      Elina Noor

  • Commentary
    Neither Comrade nor Ally: Decoding Vietnam’s First Army Drill with China

    In July 2025, Vietnam and China held their first joint army drill, a modest but symbolic move reflecting Hanoi’s strategic hedging amid U.S.–China rivalry.

      • Nguyen-khac-giang

      Nguyễn Khắc Giang

  • Research
    Subsea Communication Cables: Lessons from the Past

    Today, as Southeast Asia weighs its place in the expanding network of subsea fibre optic cables worldwide for the next few decades, it should recall its central role in linking the world two hundred years ago at the expense of its agency, independence, and sovereignty.

      Elina Noor

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Carnegie global logo, stacked
1779 Massachusetts Avenue NWWashington, DC, 20036-2103Phone: 202 483 7600Fax: 202 483 1840
  • Research
  • Emissary
  • About
  • Experts
  • Donate
  • Programs
  • Events
  • Blogs
  • Podcasts
  • Contact
  • Annual Reports
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Government Resources
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.