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A Commonsense Policy for Avoiding a Disastrous Nuclear Decision

IN THIS ISSUE: A Commonsense Policy for Avoiding a Disastrous Nuclear Decision, North Korea Fires 2 Projectiles After Offering Talks With U.S., Saudi Arabia Flags Plan to Enrich Uranium as U.S. Seeks Nuclear Pact, Israeli Leader Says Iran Hid a Nuclear Weapons Site, Defense Lawmakers Set Aggressive Schedule for NDAA

Published on September 10, 2019

A Commonsense Policy for Avoiding a Disastrous Nuclear Decision 

James Winnefeld | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

A nuclear response system that is tuned to make an irreversible decision within minutes of detecting a potential attack is saddled with risk, due to intense time pressure, says the former commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). Any errors in the commander-in-chief's perception of the attack’s validity could be disastrous. A delayed response option would increase confidence in an accurate decision, while also better deterring enemies from capitalizing on the time pressure.

North Korea Fires 2 Projectiles After Offering Talks With U.S.

Hyung-Jin Kim | AP

North Korea launched two projectiles toward the sea on Tuesday, South Korea’s military said, hours after the North offered to resume nuclear diplomacy with the United States but warned its dealings with Washington may end without new U.S. proposals. The launches and demand for new proposals were apparently aimed at pressuring the United States to make concessions when the North Korea-U.S. talks restart. North Korea is widely believed to want the United States to provide security guarantees and extensive relief from U.S.-led sanctions in return for limited denuclearization steps. The North Korean projectiles fired from its South Phyongan province, which surrounds its capital city of Pyongyang, flew about 330 kilometers (205 miles) across the country and in the direction of the waters off its east coast, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff and Defense Ministry. On Monday night, the North’s first vice foreign minister, Choe Son Hui, said North Korea is willing to resume nuclear diplomacy in late September but that Washington must come to the negotiating table with acceptable new proposals. She said if the proposals don’t satisfy North Korea, dealings between the two countries may end. 

Saudi Arabia Flags Plan to Enrich Uranium as U.S. Seeks Nuclear Pact

Rania El Gamal, Alexander Cornwell | Reuters

Saudi Arabia wants to enrich uranium for its nuclear power program, its energy minister said on Monday, potentially complicating talks with Washington on an atomic pact and the role of U.S. companies. Uranium enrichment has been a sticking point with the United States, especially after Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in 2018 that the Sunni Muslim kingdom would develop nuclear arms if regional rival Shi’ite Muslim Iran did. “We are proceeding with it cautiously ... we are experimenting with two nuclear reactors,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said, referring to a plan to issue a tender for the Gulf Arab state’s first two nuclear power reactors. Ultimately the kingdom wanted to go ahead with the full cycle of the nuclear program, including the production and enrichment of uranium for atomic fuel, he told an energy conference in Abu Dhabi. The tender is expected in 2020, with U.S., Russian, South Korean, Chinese and French firms involved in preliminary talks about the multi-billion-dollar project. Reuters has reported that progress on the discussions has been difficult because Saudi Arabia does not want to sign a deal that would rule out the possibility of enriching uranium or reprocessing spent fuel - both potential paths to a bomb. 

Israeli Leader Says Iran Hid a Nuclear Weapons Site

David Halbfinger and David Sanger | New York Times

Israel accused Iran on Monday of having harbored an undisclosed nuclear-weapons site that the Iranians destroyed a few months ago for fear of exposure. Iran ridiculed the accusation. Mr. Netanyahu told reporters in Jerusalem that Israel had first learned of the site, in the central Iranian city of Abadeh, in early 2018 when Israeli spies stole what he has previously described as a huge trove of the archives of Iran’s nuclear program. When the Iranians learned that Israel was aware of the site, he said, “they simply destroyed it, just eliminated everything.” Mr. Netanyahu showed the photographs a week before an election in which he is battling for political survival. He took no questions during the presentation. But his assertions left many questions unanswered, chief among them why Israel waited until now to reveal information from a trove of material seized at a warehouse in Tehran, in an espionage operation, 21 months ago.

Defense Lawmakers Set Aggressive Schedule for NDAA

Joe Gould and Leo Shane III | Defense News

While lawmakers have been on a five-week summer recess, staff members of each chamber’s Armed Services committees were working to resolve noncontroversial issues on the massive, annual defense policy measure, clearing the way for conferees to focus on more problematic policy differences when they return. Even with complicated work ahead and only 13 working days in September, aides in both chambers confirmed that leaders hope to draft a compromise conference report by Sept. 19, finalize signatures to the bill by Sept. 23 and set floor votes in each chamber before the end of the month. Among a range of differences on nuclear issues, the House bill bars funding for the deployment of a low-yield variant of a submarine-launched warhead called the W76-2. It would cut the entire $19.6 million Defense Department request and $10 million Energy Department request for the program. Republicans insist prohibiting these weapons puts the U.S. at a disadvantage against Russia. Smith, a skeptic of nuclear spending, is among the critics who say the concept of a tactical nuclear weapon is too dangerous for the U.S. to indulge.

Fukushima Fishermen Angry at Environment Minister's Remarks on Plan to Dump Nuclear Plant Water Into Pacific

Japan Times

Fishery industry stakeholders in Fukushima Prefecture expressed anger over Environment Minister Yoshiaki Harada’s remarks Tuesday that Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings Inc. will have to dump radioactive water from its destroyed Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant directly into the Pacific Ocean. The remarks are “thoughtless, in light of his position,” said Tetsu Nozaki, head of the Fukushima Prefectural Federation of Fisheries Cooperative Associations. “I want calm discussions to be held,” he said, noting that a relevant government committee is continuing to discuss how to dispose of the water. Nozaki has consistently voiced opposition to the release into the sea of the water from the nuclear power station. Since the plant was crippled by an earthquake and tsunami in 2011, Tepco has collected more than 1 million tons of contaminated water from the cooling pipes used to keep fuel cores from melting. The water is currently stored in tanks at the power plant site, but the utility says it will run out of space by 2022. “The only option will be to drain it into the sea and dilute it,” Harada told a news conference.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.