Edition

A ReSTART for U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control: Enhancing Security Through Cooperation

IN THIS ISSUE: A ReSTART for U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control: Enhancing Security Through Cooperation, U.S. Hits All of Iran’s Financial Sector With Sanctions, U.S. Sees “Important Progress” in Helsinki Nuclear Arms Talks, Pence, Harris, Clash Over Iran Nuclear Agreement During Debate, Russia Reports Successful Test Launch of Hypersonic Missile, What a North Korean Holiday May Reveal About Kim Jong Un’s Plans

Published on October 8, 2020

A ReSTART for U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control: Enhancing Security Through Cooperation

Pranay Vaddi and James Acton | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The last remaining limits on Russia’s and the United States’ nuclear forces—as codified in the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START)—are due to expire on February 5, 2021. Moscow and Washington can and should extend this agreement in its current form for five years and begin the long and difficult negotiations toward a follow-on treaty as soon as possible. Concluding such a treaty is technically feasible and, given growing U.S.-Russian tensions, strategically critical. Treaties to verifiably limit nuclear forces enhance Russian and U.S. security in two primary ways. First, they can help avoid expensive arms build-ups that would heighten geopolitical tensions. Second, they can lower the risk of escalation leading to nuclear use. The sharp decline in U.S.-Russian relations since New START entered into force has increased the risks of both a quantitative arms race and the kind of deep crisis or conflict that could make nuclear use imaginable. As a result, the need for strategic arms control is now greater than at any time since the end of the Cold War.

U.S. Hits All of Iran’s Financial Sector With Sanctions

Matthew Lee | Associated Press

The Trump administration has blacklisted virtually all of Iran’s financial sector, dealing another blow to an economy that is already reeling under U.S. sanctions. The move will deepen tensions with European nations and others over Iran. Thursday’s move hits 18 Iranian banks that had thus far escaped the bulk of re-imposed U.S. sanctions and, more importantly, subjects foreign, non-Iranian financial institutions to penalties for doing business with them. Thus, it effectively cuts them off from the international financial system. “Today’s action to identify the financial sector and sanction eighteen major Iranian banks reflects our commitment to stop illicit access to U.S. dollars,” said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. “Our sanctions programs will continue until Iran stops its support of terrorist activities and ends its nuclear programs. Today’s actions will continue to allow for humanitarian transactions to support the Iranian people.”

U.S. Sees “Important Progress” in Helsinki Nuclear Arms Talks

Associated Press

The top U.S. negotiator in nuclear arms control talks with Russia held in Helsinki says a one-day follow-up meeting to earlier talks in Austria has yielded “important progress.” Ambassador Marshall Billingslea, President Donald Trump’s special envoy for arms control, gave the upbeat view in a tweet Tuesday, a day after the talks in the Finnish capital with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. He gave no further detail. The low-profile negotiations were meant as an update to a U.S.-Russia dialogue on nuclear arms in Vienna in June, July and August. Monday’s talks are thought to have focused on producing a new agreement to replace, or to extend, the New START treaty that expires in February — the last remaining pact constraining the arsenals of the world’s two major nuclear powers. In Moscow, the tone was much more skeptical. Speaking at a meeting with European business leaders on Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Washington of “unilateralism” and said the New START treaty would likely cease to exist.

Pence, Harris, Clash Over Iran Nuclear Agreement During Debate

Omri Nahmias | Jerusalem Post

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris blasted the president for withdrawing from the Iran deal, during Wednesday night’s vice presidential debate. It had put the U.S. “in a position where we are less safe because they are building up what might end up being a significant nuclear arsenal,” she said. While the debate with Vice President Mike Pence was mostly focused on domestic issues such as COVID-19, the economy and the Supreme Court, it also included a segment on foreign policy and included a brief exchange on the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. “We were in that deal, guys,” she continued. “We were in the Iran nuclear deal with friends and allies, and because of Donald Trump’s unilateral foreign policy, coupled with his isolationism, he pulled us out and has made America less safe.” Harris went on to say that “the thing that has always been part of the strength of our nation, in addition to our great military, has been that we keep our word – but Donald Trump doesn’t understand that.”

Russia Reports Successful Test Launch of Hypersonic Missile

Associated Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday hailed the successful test launch of a new Zircon hypersonic cruise missile as a “big event” for the country. Speaking to Putin via a video call, Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov said the test launch took place Tuesday from the Admiral Groshkov frigate located in the White Sea, in the north of Russia. The missile successfully hit a target in the Barents Sea, he added. “Equipping our Armed Forces — the army and the navy — with the latest, truly unparalleled weapon systems will certainly ensure the defense capability of our country in the long term,” said Putin, who was celebrating his 68th birthday Wednesday. In 2019, Putin had said the Zircon would be capable of flying at nine times the speed of sound and have a range of 1,000 kilometers (620 miles).

What a North Korean Holiday May Reveal About Kim Jong Un’s Plans

Josh Smith | Reuters

North Korea is expected to use a major holiday this weekend to showcase its military power, highlight domestic political messages, and galvanize citizens at a time when the country faces increasing economic hardship and isolation. International observers are closely watching the celebrations to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea on Saturday, eager to see what messages Kim Jong Un will send to domestic and foreign audiences. The stakes are high for Kim, who has seen his promises of economic progress fall short in the face of international sanctions in place amid stalled denuclearisation talks, a strict lockdown to prevent a coronavirus outbreak, and damaging summer storms. Analysts say most of the events are expected to focus on domestic messaging through things such as national meetings, art and industry exhibitions, a light show, visits to key monuments, and ceremonies to mark the completion of construction projects. But there is also growing speculation that Kim may use a military parade to show off his largest ballistic missiles for the first time since he first met with U.S. President Donald Trump in 2018.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.