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Achieving a Win-Win Diplomatic Solution on Iran

IN THIS ISSUE: Achieving a win-win diplomatic solution on Iran, New START: one year later, Korea's nuclear deal with Turkey, Indonesia joins CTBT, Indian forces to be trained for nuke accidents, Germany, Israel sign deal for nuke-ready sub.

Published on February 7, 2012
 

Achieving a Win-Win Diplomatic Solution on Iran

Pierre Goldschmidt | EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Conference

Khameini

The information contained in the November 2011 IAEA report regarding the possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program and Iran's lack of cooperation with the IAEA leave little doubt that Iran aims to become at least a nuclear threshold state.

A threshold state is defined here as a state that has the scientific, technical and industrial capability to manufacture more than one nuclear weapon within one year of a decision to do so.

The Iranian regime has devoted ample resources to the nuclear program over a period of more than 25 years. Today, this program is too advanced to reasonably hope that any future government in Iran would be willing to, or even could (for internal political reasons), abandon the elements which have been declared, no matter the level of sanctions. What could possibly change is the tactic used by the Iranian leadership to minimize the level and impact of sanctions while most likely maintaining the option to restart weaponization activities at short notice. Full Article



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