Edition

Arms Control Decisions by Trump Administration Could Be ‘Imminent.’ Will China Be Involved?

IN THIS ISSUE: Washington Rejects Moscow’s Idea of Lawyers’ Meeting on New START – Diplomat, US to Test SM-3 Block IIA Missile Against ICBM Target by End of 2020, Parties to Iran Nuclear Deal Meet But Make Little Progress in Saving It, China’s Missile Force Is Growing at an Unprecedented Rate

Published on February 27, 2020

Arms Control Decisions by Trump Administration Could be ‘Imminent.’ Will China Be Involved?

Aaron Mehta | Defense News

With a major arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia set to expire next February, members of the nonproliferation community have been watching for signs that negotiations may begin in earnest. For those observers, some welcome news: Movement on the Trump administration’s arms control plan is “imminent,” according to a senior defense official familiar with internal administration discussions. However, what that looks like appears to be up in the air: a short-term extension of the New START agreement with Russia; something that involves nuclear-armed China; a combination of those two; or all parties walking away entirely. “All the options are literally on the interagency table,” the official told Defense News on condition of anonymity. The New START agreement, signed in 2010, is an arms control pact between Russia and the U.S. that restricts each country to a total of 1,550 warheads deployed on bombers, submarines and in underground silos. Following the dissolution of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, New START is the only major nuclear arms control agreement left between the two nuclear powers. 

Washington Rejects Moscow’s Idea of Lawyers’ Meeting on New START – Diplomat

TASS

Moscow suggested holding a meeting of Russian and US lawyers to discuss the possibility of extending the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), but the United States officially rejected the idea, Deputy Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control Vladimir Leontyev said at a roundtable discussion on New START, hosted by the Federation Council (the upper house of parliament) on Thursday. “The Americans are avoiding conversations on the treaty’s extension. They have decided for some reason that it is a very simple process that would take only a few days. We suggested holding a lawyers’ meeting to compare our positions on the issue and work out an understanding of the technical aspect of the extension process. However, the Americans issued an official refusal just recently,” he pointed out. According to the senior Russian diplomat, the non-extension of New START seems to be quite possible.

US to Test SM-3 Block IIA Missile Against ICBM Target by End of 2020

Ankit Panda | Diplomat

The U.S. Missile Defense Agency will, for the first time, test a Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) Block IIA interceptor against a target representing an intercontinental-range ballistic missile later this year, according to a recent report by Naval News. The test, codenamed FTM-44, is part of a testing program for the SM-3 system mandated by the U.S. Congress. According to comments by Missile Defense Agency spokesperson to Naval News, the FTM-44 test “is scheduled for FY20-Q3 and will be conducted in the Pacific Ocean.” The test will involve a ”threat representative” ICBM target, she added. The specific target missile will be the Northrop Grumman ICBM T2 target. Both China and Russia see U.S. efforts to develop systems capable of destroy ICBM-class reentry vehicles as a threat to their strategic nuclear deterrents. If the SM-3 Block IIA is successfully developed into an anti-ICBM system, it would considerably multiply the set of interceptors available to the United States to defend against ICBMs. 

Parties to Iran Nuclear Deal Meet But Make Little Progress in Saving It

Reuters

Parties to Iran’s nuclear deal made little progress on Wednesday toward saving the agreement as Iran is still breaching many of its central terms in response to U.S. sanctions, but efforts to ease Tehran’s economic pain continued, delegates said. Wednesday’s meeting of senior officials came more than a month after European parties to the deal - France, Britain and Germany - formally accused Iran of violating its terms, setting off a process that could eventually reimpose international sanctions lifted under the agreement. But, in a move underlining how torn the Europeans are between pressuring Iran not to breach the deal and still trying to save it, the European Union’s foreign policy chief said this month the powers would indefinitely extend the time limits in that process to avoid having to reimpose sanctions. Delegates said that process, known as the dispute resolution mechanism, was not even discussed at Wednesday’s meeting, though the Europeans did criticize Iran.

China’s Missile Force Is Growing at an Unprecedented Rate

P.W. Singer and Ma Xiu | Popular Science

China’s long-range missiles play a central role in the country’s military plans. And, in the event of armed conflict between that nation and the US, they’re the weapon the American military worries the most about. Despite their pivotal role in Chinese war-fighting strategy, the service responsible for those missiles, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF), remains perhaps the most opaque branch of Beijing’s military. While its new fleet of expanded-range missile systems—from the DF-31 and DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to the hypersonic DF-17—have debuted in parades, there are still a number of profound changes happening in the PLARF that are relatively undisclosed. But by tracking more subtle public announcements and news stories, it appears the number of missile brigades in the PLA has jumped from 29 to 40, an increase of more than 35 percent, in just three years.

Russia’s Military Rolls Out New ‘Cruise Missile Killer’ Weapons System

Tom O’Connor | Newsweek

Moscow's military has received its latest anti-air system and tested its ability to take on incoming aircraft at a time when Russia and the United States were competing for cutting-edge warfighting capabilities. Russia's aerospace forces commissioned the new S-350 Vityaz surface-to-air missile system on Wednesday. The system was delivered to the Air and Space Defenсe Academy in the Leningrad region and underwent training "to detect and destroy a mock air enemy." The weapon was described as having been "designed to protect the most important state, administrative, industrial, military facilities and groupings of troops from attacks by modern and promising means of air attack of the enemy." It's designed to defend against both aircraft and missiles. The S-350 joins a decades-old family of defense systems that include the S-200, S-300, S-400 and the S-500, which remains under development. The new weapon's state-owned manufacturer, Almaz-Antey, said the weapon can operate both alone and as part of a multi-layered defense system.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.