Assessing U.S. Options for the Future of the ICBM Force
Toby Dalton, Megan DuBois, Natalie Montoya, Ankit Panda, George Perkovich | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Ultimately, whether or not it is possible to further life-extend Minuteman III to some intermediate date, if a presidential determination deems capabilities beyond those of Minuteman III are necessary, and that the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) will provide those capabilities, then it is clear to us that there is no intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) alternative other than GBSD. That there remain questions about the feasibility and desirability to sustain the Minuteman III system as a GBSD alternative is an indication that the DOD could have done more to improve public confidence in its ICBM procurement process and decisionmaking. One of the most salient issues that surfaced in our study is the projected medium-term increase in the vulnerability of silo-based ICBMs to attack by precision conventional weapons. This threat is likely to materialize well before the notional GBSD service life expiration in 2075. We believe this issue deserves more debate, as it may raise questions about the declining strategic value of a long-term commitment to silo-based nuclear-armed ICBMs inherent in the decision to proceed with GBSD.
Ukraine's Top General Warns of Russian Nuclear Strike Risk
Max Hunder and Tom Balmforth | Reuters
In rare public comments Ukraine's military chief warned on Wednesday of the threat of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, which would create the risk of a "limited" nuclear conflict with other powers…The article contained by far the Ukrainian commander-in-chief's most detailed assessment of the war to date, and gave starkly contrasting messages to those given by top Ukrainian officials. "There is a direct threat of the use, under certain circumstances, of tactical nuclear weapons by the Russian Armed forces," Zaluzhnyi said.
Shelling Resumes Near Ukraine Nuclear Plant, Despite Risks
Yuras Karmanau | Associated Press
Shelling resumed near Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, with the warring sides trading blame again on Wednesday, a day after the U.N. atomic watchdog agency pressed for a safe zone there to prevent a catastrophe. Russian forces fired rockets and heavy artillery on the city of Nikopol, on the opposite bank of the Dnieper River from Europe’s largest nuclear plant, regional Gov. Valentyn Reznichenko said.
IAEA ‘Cannot Assure’ Peaceful Nature of Iran Nuclear Programme
Al Jazeera
The UN’s nuclear watchdog has said it could not guarantee the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme, saying there had been “no progress” in resolving questions about the past presence of nuclear material at undeclared sites. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in a new report it was “not in a position to provide assurance that Iran’s nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful”, several news agencies reported on Wednesday. The report said IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi was “increasingly concerned that Iran has not engaged with the Agency on the outstanding safeguards issues during this reporting period and, therefore, that there has been no progress towards resolving them”.
Germany to Keep Two Nuclear Plants Available as a Backup and Burn Coal as it Faces an Energy Crisis Brought on by War and Climate Change
Catherine Clifford | CNBC
German lawmakers announced on Monday that they are going to burn coal and keep two nuclear power plants available as a last resort to get through the winter. “The major crises — war and climate crises — have a very concrete effect,” said Robert Habeck, the federal economics and climate protection minister, in written statements published on Monday.
Material on Foreign Nation's Nuclear Capabilities Seized at Trump's Mar-a-Lago
Devlin Barrett and Carol Leonnig | The Washington Post
A document describing a foreign government’s military defenses, including its nuclear capabilities, was found by FBI agents who searched former president Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence and private club last month, according to people familiar with the matter, underscoring concerns among U.S. intelligence officials about classified material stashed in the Florida property.