Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Europe in a Post-INF World
Ulrich Kuhn | Nonproliferation Review
The end of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has the potential to plunge Europe and NATO into deep crisis. Russia’s continued violation coupled with the Donald J. Trump administration’s desire to balance against Moscow and Beijing could force a new missile debate on Europeans. Even though Washington is trying to assuage its allies, the specter of another round of INF missile deployments to Europe is not unrealistic. Meanwhile, NATO’s European members face a dilemma. Some want NATO to resolutely push back against Russia. Others want to avoid a new deployment debate, at almost all costs. The Kremlin will use these cleavages to weaken NATO. If not carefully handled, NATO’s response to the Russian missile buildup could lead to domestic turmoil in a number of European states and render the alliance ineffective for a prolonged period. Europeans need to act now and voice their preferences in the military and diplomatic domains.
With North Korea Outreach Stalled, South Korea’s Moon Looks to Trump for a Way Forward
Adam Taylor and Michelle Ye Hee Lee | Washington Post
When summit talks collapsed between President Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in February, it was a political gut punch for South Korea’s president. Moon Jae-in has staked enormous political capital on his outreach to the North and now needs Washington’s backing to keep it going. On Thursday, Moon will bring his concerns directly to Trump in their first face-to-face meeting since the collapse of the U.S.-North Korea negotiations in Hanoi in February. For Moon, it is a chance to reaffirm the strength of the relationship between Washington and Seoul amid mixed messages after the summit in Vietnam. Moon told South Korean officials last week that he was on the “same page” as his American counterpart. But if South Korea and the United States are really united over the approach to Kim, they may be reading from different scripts.
Chinese Threats Necessitate New Space Structures, Shanahan Warns
Aaron Mehta | Defense News
China is the greatest threat to America’s assets in space, and that threat will only increase should the U.S. not adapt its war-fighting approach in orbit, the head of the Pentagon warned Tuesday. Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan used a keynote speech at the annual Space Symposium to highlight what he described as dangers from Beijing, and to use those concerns to make the case for why the U.S. needs a trio of new space organizations. “The threat is clear: We’re in an era of great power competition, and the next major conflict may be won or lost in space,” Shanahan said in prepared remarks. “We are not going to sit back and watch — we are going to act. We are going to deter conflict from extending into space and ensure we can respond decisively if deterrence fails.” The Pentagon chief specifically called out a number of Chinese systems — including a ground-based laser — that could hold American capabilities at risk.
Kim Jong-un May Unveil New Nuclear Strategy on Thursday
Lee Min-hyung | Korea Times
All eyes are on North Korea to see if it makes a major announcement on its nuclear plans, Thursday, when the regime plans to hold a major parliamentary meeting.Last month, North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui hinted that the regime's leadership would soon make public its "crucial decision" on denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. Officials from the United States and South Korea view the upcoming session of the regime's top legislative body ― the Supreme People's Assembly ― as a critical moment for the North to announce its upcoming nuclear strategies.
Federal Watchdog Probes Trump Admin Push for Saudi Nuke Deal
Erin Banco | Daily Beast
One of the government’s top investigative agencies has looked at allegations of potential wrongdoing by individuals in the Trump administration about their planning of a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, according to two individuals with knowledge of the probe. The line of inquiry is part of a broader investigation in the Office of the Special Counsel—an independent federal investigative and prosecutorial agency—into alleged politically motivated personnel decisions at government offices. The OSC, which can seek corrective and disciplinary action, is looking at whether officials were retaliated against for raising concerns about the administration’s work related to a Saudi nuclear deal. As part of that investigation, OSC has also reviewed allegations about potentially improper dealings by senior members of the Trump administration in their attempt to map out a nuclear deal with Riyadh, according to two sources with knowledge of OSC’s work.
The Navy’s New Nuclear Missile Submarines Are Probably Going to Cost More Than $128 Billion
Tony Capaccio | Time
The U.S. Navy may have to ask Congress to boost funding in fiscal 2021 to buy the first in its new 12-ship fleet of nuclear-armed submarines because of unreliable cost estimates, according to congressional auditors. The service’s current procurement cost estimate and design goal are suspect and require updates before those dollars are approved, the Government Accountability Office said in a report issued Monday. The Columbia-class program is estimated at $128 billion including research and development, with $115 billion for procurement. That makes it the Pentagon’s third-costliest system.