China’s Ballyhooed New Hypersonic Missile Isn’t Exactly a Game-Changer
James Acton | Washington Post
In the show of military might Tuesday to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, one of the highlights among the weapons trundling through Tiananmen Square in Beijing was a hypersonic boost-glide missile. The exhibition of 16 DF-17 missiles (or possibly models of the real thing), displayed in public for the first time, will probably add to disquiet in the United States about a growing military imbalance, but that unease should be tempered by a few practical considerations. For the past few years, scientists, Pentagon officials and uniformed military leaders have warned about China’s apparent lead in hypersonic technology, which they often describe as a “game changer.” Over the long term, hypersonic missiles could indeed provide China (and Russia, too) with a uniquely threatening capability, but there is time for a considered response: The DF-17 and its immediate successors are unlikely to add much, if anything, to China’s already impressive military forces.
N. Korea Threatens to Resume Nuke, Long-Range Missile Tests
Hyung-Jin Kim | AP
North Korea threatened again Thursday to resume nuclear and long-range missile tests, accusing the U.S. of having instigated some members of the U.N. Security Council to condemn its recent weapons tests. The warning by Pyongyang’s Foreign Ministry followed the weekend breakdown of North Korea-U.S. nuclear negotiations in Sweden, the first such talks between the countries in more than seven months. North Korea said the talks collapsed because the U.S. didn’t have any new proposals, and whether it maintains a self-imposed moratorium on major weapons tests was up to Washington. A ministry statement took issue with condemnation Tuesday by the European members of the U.N. Security Council of North Korea’s recent ballistic missile and other weapons tests, including its first underwater-launched missile launch in three years on Oct. 2. North Korea said those tests were of the self-defense nature. On Tuesday, the U.N. council discussed the North’s latest underwater-launched missile test and its European members urged Pyongyang to abandon all weapons of mass destruction and engage in “meaningful negotiations” with the U.S. The council meeting was called by France, Germany and the United Kingdom.
On North Korea, the Chickens Are Coming Home to Roost
Uri Friedman | Atlantic
With little fanfare, certainly not the kind on display during his meetings with Kim Jong Un, the bill is coming due for Donald Trump’s diplomacy with North Korea. The talks have been stalled since the latest encounter between Trump and Kim. Over the course of the past year and a half, North Korea has not made any concessions other than a provisional halt in nuclear- and long-range-missile tests, the unverified destruction of a nuclear-test site, and a vague commitment to the “denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.” If Kim’s negotiators remain determined to tread water between summits with Trump, that doesn’t bode well for the prospects of a comprehensive nuclear agreement. As the nuclear expert Toby Dalton has observed, concluding such a deal with North Korea would be more complicated than the process of negotiating the nuclear-arms-control treaty known as START was; the United States and the Soviet Union signed START in 1991 after nearly a decade of diplomacy involving “1,000 hours or more of negotiations where you had teams of Soviet and American experts who were living in Geneva, meeting every day,” and churning out hundreds of pages of text.
Trump Administration Expected to Announce Exit from ‘Open Skies’ Treaty
Ryan Browne | CNN
The Trump administration is expected to soon announce that it plans to exit the “Open Skies” treaty, a US official tells CNN, a move that has already drawn condemnation from Democrats in Congress. The decision to leave the treaty -- which was signed in 1992 and went into effect in 2002 and allows 34 member states to conduct unarmed surveillance flights over one another's territories -- could affect the American military's ability to conduct aerial surveillance of Russia and other member countries. The treaty is used to help verify arms control agreements, according to the US Defense Threat Reduction Agency, part of the Defense Department. The White House and Pentagon have not responded to CNN's requests for comment on the matter. Democrats have been quick to criticize the impending announcement. “Not only is there no case for withdrawal on the grounds of national security, there has been no consultation with the Congress or with our allies about this consequential decision. Any action by this administration to withdraw from critical international treaties without the approval of the Senate is deeply concerning,” wrote Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey, Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, Rep. Eliot Engel of New York and Rep. Adam Smith of Washington state.
WIPP: New Mexico Nuclear Waste Site’s Five-Year Plan Deemed Insufficient by State Leaders
Adrian Hedden | Carlsbad Current-Argus
A group of governors from western states voiced “disappointment” in a recently released five-year strategic plan for ongoing operations at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, contending they weren’t adequately consulted on the future of the nuclear waste repository near Carlsbad. The Western Governors’ Association (WGA) sent a letter outlining its concerns to Kirk Lachman, acting manager of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Carlsbad Field Office which oversees WIPP’s management and planning. The five-year plan, mostly describing capital projects and schedules for waste emplacement, was released in August as WIPP officials contended the facility could continue accepting waste until 2050, double its original proposed lifespan of 25 years from its initial opening in 1999 to 2024. Lachman said the plan was essential for the DOE to continue supporting WIPP’s “critical missions” related to updating infrastructure, increasing emplacement operations and ensuring working safety. “Our ability to support these critical missions over the next five years and beyond is contingent on repairing, refurbishing, and recapitalizing aged and failing infrastructure at the WIPP facility, as well as modernizing the WIPP facility,” he said.
Norway’s Increased Military Budget Omits NATO Missile Defense System
Ed Adamcyzk | UPI
Norway will increase its 2020 defense budget by $218 million, the government announced, but it does not include participation in NATO's missile defense system. “As the result of a broad review of political and security factors, the government has decided that Norway will not consider acquiring sensors or defense missiles which can participate in NATO's missile defense system,” the budget says. The system, which began in 2011, is in use by several NATO countries, largely in the Mediterranean Sea area. Its 2020 phase is designed to upgrade its ability to counter medium- and intermediate-range missiles and potential future inter-continental ballistic missiles through the deployment of the SM-3 Block IIB interceptor. While NATO has denied that the system is directed against Russia, Norway and Russia share a 122-mile border, and an element of Norway's decision is a reluctance to antagonize its neighbor.