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Climate Change Poses a Hidden Challenge to NATO Nuclear Deterrence

IN THIS ISSUE: Climate Change Poses a Hidden Challenge to NATO Nuclear Deterrence, Fear and Ambition Propel Xi’s Nuclear Acceleration, Russia has No Plans to Deploy Nuclear Arms Beyond Belarus, says Deputy Minister, Iran Says Construction Started on New Nuclear Reactor, Remnants of a Nuclear Missile Are Found in a Garage, Congress Torpedoes a Biden Nominee and Casts Doubt on Nuclear Safety

Published on February 6, 2024

Climate Change Poses a Hidden Challenge to NATO Nuclear Deterrence

JAMIE KWONG,  ANNA BARTOUX,  NOAH GORDON,  DANIEL HELMECI | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Climate change stands to challenge the U.S. nuclear deterrent in increasingly serious ways. Sea level rise, extreme weather events, and warming temperatures could have mission-altering impacts on deterrence, significantly challenging the nuclear systems, activities, and operations at key bases in the United States that host nuclear weapons. But other bases hosting U.S. nuclear weapons overseas could also be challenged by climate change impacts.

Fear and Ambition Propel Xi’s Nuclear Acceleration

Chris Buckley | The New York Times 

Nineteen days after taking power as China’s leader, Xi Jinping convened the generals overseeing the country’s nuclear missiles and issued a blunt demand. China had to be ready for possible confrontation with a formidable adversary, he said, signaling that he wanted a more potent nuclear capability to counter the threat. Their force, he told the generals, was a “pillar of our status as a great power.” They must, Mr. Xi said, advance “strategic plans for responding under the most complicated and difficult conditions to military intervention by a powerful enemy,” according to an official internal summary of his speech in December 2012 to China’s nuclear and conventional missile arm, then called the Second Artillery Corps, which was verified by The New York Times… Now, as China’s nuclear options have grown, its military strategists are looking to nuclear weapons as not only a defensive shield, but as a potential sword — to intimidate and subjugate adversaries.

Russia has No Plans to Deploy Nuclear Arms Beyond Belarus, says Deputy Minister

Dmitry Antonov and Guy Faulconbridge | Reuters

Russia will not deploy nuclear weapons abroad except in its ally Belarus but will find ways to counter any deployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in Britain, the deputy minister in charge of arms control said on Thursday. President Vladimir Putin said last year that Moscow had transferred some tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, blaming what he casts as a hostile and aggressive West for the decision.

Iran Says Construction Started on New Nuclear Reactor

Agence France-Presse |  VOA

Iran said Monday it had started building a new nuclear research reactor in Isfahan, days after it announced it was constructing a nuclear power plant complex in the south. "Today, the process of pouring concrete for the foundation of the reactor started at the Isfahan site," said Mohammad Eslami, head of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, according to state media IRNA…IRNA described the new 10-megawatt reactor as a "research reactor," and said it would have a variety of applications including fuel and nuclear material tests and the production of industrial radioisotopes and radiopharmaceuticals. The Isfahan nuclear research center is already home to three reactors.

Remnants of a Nuclear Missile Are Found in a Garage

Gaya Gupta | The New York Times

Garages are often cluttered with dusty boxes of heirlooms, untouched gym equipment or a multitude of tools. But how about a piece of a Cold War-era nuclear missile? Members of the bomb squad in Bellevue, Wash., on Thursday were called to inspect parts of a military-grade missile in the garage of a resident. Elements of the larger, intact missile, such as the warhead, were missing and the authorities deemed the piece to be inert and safe, the police said in a news release on Friday.

Congress Torpedoes a Biden Nominee and Casts Doubt on Nuclear Safety

Allison Macfarlane | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The Biden administration’s recent abandonment of Jeff Baran for another term as member on the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) bodes ill for the independence of the agency—and the safety and security of the country. A longtime commissioner, Baran reportedly did not have enough support from some senate Democrats to win another nomination. His crimes? Being “an overzealous regulator overtly hostile to nuclear energy.” Senate Democrats say they would prefer a nominee who is not “too focused on safety.” But the NRC is not a pro- or an anti-nuclear group; it’s an independent regulator, whose mission is to protect public health and safety, ensure security, and protect the environment.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.