Defusing the Crises With Iran-Time for Europe to Assume the Mantle
Ariel Levite and Shimon Stein | Die Zeit
The recent US attack killing general Qassem Suleimani is merely the latest move in a chain reaction triggered by a President Trump’s erratic policy choices on Iran starting with his decision to walk out of the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) and apply on it “maximum pressure” without developing a coherent strategy instead. Each of his decisions could have made sense on its own. But his unilateralism, myopia and inconsistency have resulted in an upward spiral of friction and violence with Iran and its regional allies and left the JCPOA on life support. Trump is unable to forge a constructive engagement with Iran any more than he has developed with the DPRK. China is similarly preoccupied with a series of domestic woes. While Russia which has its hands in ever larger number of pots is too closely aligned with Iran. Which leaves Europe in a unique position to step in to halt retaliatory terrorism, perhaps even rapid deterioration toward war, that would likely follow Iranian attempts to avenge Suelleimani’s death.
Trump Calls for New Nuclear Deal While Bashing Old One With Misinformation
Conor Finnegan | ABC News
Before President Donald Trump even said “good morning” in a televised address responding to Iran's strikes on U.S. targets, he announced, “As long as I am president of the United States, Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.” It's an often-repeated line from him, but there was one change in U.S. policy Wednesday: Trump called for other world powers to abandon the nuclear accord, which is barely surviving after he withdrew the U.S. in 2018 and Iran has unraveled its cooperation since 2019. Instead, Trump urged those countries that remain in the deal to pursue negotiations over a new Iran nuclear deal. But in doing so, he attacked the existing one with misinformation -- and analysts say any new negotiations are unlikely because of Trump's maximalist approach to Tehran. “Iran must abandon its nuclear ambitions and end its support for terrorism,” the president said at the White House. “The time has come for the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia and China to recognize this reality. They must now break away from the remnants of the Iran deal -- or JCPOA -- and we must all work together toward making a deal with Iran that makes the world a safer and more peaceful place.” While Trump expressed optimism for a new negotiation with Iran and a new deal, the chances of that are also low. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has already said he will not negotiate with Trump, telling Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in June, “I don't consider him worthy of even exchanging messages with.”
UK to Look ‘Very Hard’ at Future of Iran Nuclear Deal
Laurenz Gehrke | Politico Europe
British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab warned that the U.K. would look “very hard at what should happen next” with the Iran nuclear deal given Tehran's decision to take another step back from its commitments under the 2015 accord. However, Boris Johnson told the Iranian president that the U.K. was committed to the nuclear deal. Raab, speaking to the BBC after meeting with his counterpart Mike Pompeo in Washington late Wednesday, said that Britain was dedicated to ensuring Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons. Regarding the nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Raab said: “We’ve obviously been committed to the JCPOA, but we’ve reached a point where non-compliance has been so acute in the most recent steps taken by Iran that obviously we’re going to be looking very hard at what should happen next.” Johnson spoke with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Wednesday. According to a Downing Street spokesperson, they “discussed the situation in the region” and Johnson “called for an end to hostilities.”
US Delays Ban on Licenses for Bomb-Grade Uranium Exports for Two Years
Timothy Gardner | Reuters
The U.S. Energy Department has waived a ban on licenses for the export of weapons-grade uranium for making medical isotopes, which critics said raises proliferation risks and undermines companies that are converting to safer materials. Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette said in a letter to the top members of the U.S. House of Representatives energy committee that his department had determined that global supplies of a substance made without highly enriched uranium, or HEU, that is used to make medical isotopes were not sufficient to meet the needs of U.S. patients. In the letter, which was dated Jan. 2 and a copy of which was seen by Reuters, Brouillette waived for two years a ban on licenses issued by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission that had been set to begin on Jan. 3. The substance is known as non-HEU-based Mo-99. A company in Belgium called Institute for Radioelements, or IRE, wants the HEU to make the isotopes. Radioisotopes are used for a variety of medical purposes such as imaging, diagnosis and treatment of cancer. Alan Kuperman, a University of Texas professor and founding coordinator of the Nuclear Proliferation Prevention Project, said the move undermines companies’ converting to low enriched uranium, a material that does not pose proliferation risks, and startups that are making the medical materials without HEU.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin Oversees Hypersonic Missile Test Near Crimea
Darya Tarasova, Zahra Ullah, and Jack Guy | CNN
Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw military exercises off the coast of Crimea on Thursday that included the launching of a hypersonic missile system. Russia's Black Sea and Northern Fleets held joint drills in the Black Sea during which they practiced the launch of the Kalibr cruise missiles and the hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile Kinzhal, according to Russian state news agency TASS. More than 30 ships, 40 aircraft and one submarine were involved in the exercises, TASS reported. Two MIG-31K fighters practiced target-firing using the Kinzhal ballistic missile and crews of the Admiral Grigorovich frigate, small missile ship Orekhovo-Zuyevo and submarine Kolpino tested the launch of the Kalibr missiles. In late December the Russian leader boasted of his country's “unique” advances in hypersonic weaponry, saying other countries were “trying to catch up with us.” Putin added that “not a single country possesses hypersonic weapons, let alone continental-range hypersonic weapons.” A new hypersonic missile system known as Avangard entered service December 27, the country's state media reported.
Nukes a Deterrent, No Other Role: Army Chief General Naravane
Shaurya Karanbir Gurung | Economic Times
Calling Pakistan’s nuclear bluff, Indian Army Chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane here on Friday said nuclear weapons are only a ‘good deterrence’. He pointed out that there have been two to three occasions where India has carried out operations against the neighbouring country without the ‘nuclear portion’ coming into play. Naravane also said although the Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorist camp in Balakot has been ‘reactivated’, it was destroyed in the Indian aerial strikes on it in February last year. He said the strikes signal that terrorist camps and infrastructure can be taken down and cannot operate with impunity. When asked where have the Balakot air strikes placed the nuclear threshold between India and Pakistan, Naravane said, “Historically, nuclear weapons are a good deterrence. That is where their role ends... On two to three occasions we have carried out operations without the nuclear portion coming into play.”