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Dimming Prospects for U.S.-Russia Nonproliferation Cooperation

IN THIS ISSUE: Dimming Prospects for U.S.-Russia Nonproliferation Cooperation, Putin Warns Again that Russia is Ready to Use Nuclear Weapons if its Sovereignty is Threatened, China Responds to Putin's Nuclear Weapons Warning, Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Reports Shelling by Ukraine Army, UK Steps Up Sizewell Nuclear Push With State-Backed Loans, Strategic Myopia: The Proposed First Use of Tactical N

Published on March 14, 2024

Dimming Prospects for U.S.-Russia Nonproliferation Cooperation

TOBY DALTON,  MARK HIBBS,  NICOLE GRAJEWSKI, and ANKIT PANDA | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Among the potential casualties of Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine is the long tradition of cooperation between Washington and Moscow to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. A growing divergence on nonproliferation concerns and on strategic approaches to Iran, North Korea, and nuclear governance is certainly evident right now, but a considered assessment reveals the potential for realignment of some U.S.-Russia interests in the longer term.

Putin Warns Again that Russia is Ready to Use Nuclear Weapons if its Sovereignty is Threatened

Associated Press

President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty or independence is threatened, issuing another blunt warning to the West just days before an election in which he’s all but certain to secure another six-year term…Putin’s comments appeared to be a message to the West that he’s prepared to use all means to protect his gains in Ukraine. He said that in line with the country’s security doctrine, Moscow is ready to use nuclear weapons in case of a threat to “the existence of the Russian state, our sovereignty and independence.” “All that is written in our strategy, we haven’t changed it,” he said.

China Responds to Putin's Nuclear Weapons Warning

Micah McCartney | Newsweek

Beijing said Wednesday that nuclear powers should "jointly seek de-escalation" following Vladimir Putin's statement that Russia is prepared for a possible nuclear conflict…Asked to respond to Putin's remarks during the Chinese foreign ministry's press conference on Wednesday, spokesperson Wang Wenbin stressed that a nuclear war "cannot be won and must never be fought"—quoting a line from a rare joint-statement from the five leading nuclear powers in 2022."China believes that all nuclear weapon states need to embrace the idea of common security and uphold global strategic balance and stability," he said, pointing out that Russia, which signed the statement, has also affirmed this belief.

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Reports Shelling by Ukraine Army

Reuters

The Russian-controlled management of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, said on Thursday that the Ukrainian army had shelled a critical infrastructure facility at the plant. An explosive device was dropped near a fence where diesel fuel tanks are located, the plant reported. "Such attacks are unacceptable," it said. It was not immediately clear when the attack had taken place. Reuters was unable to immediately verify battlefield reports from either side.

UK Steps Up Sizewell Nuclear Push With State-Backed Loans

Will Mathis and Priscila Azevedo Rocha | Bloomberg

HSBC Holdings Plc is in talks with investment funds about loans to help to finance the construction of the UK’s Sizewell C nuclear plant, as the government steps up efforts to get a key energy project off the drawing board this year. The bank is in discussions with funds to provide the debt that would be guaranteed by the country’s export finance agency, according to people familiar with the matter. That would help Sizewell offset risks of financing a long-term project, while securing cheaper capital, the people said, asking not to be identified as the negotiations are private.

Strategic Myopia: The Proposed First Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons to Defend Taiwan

DAVID KEARN | War on the Rocks

China’s rapid nuclear buildup, after a massive two-decade program of conventional military modernization, confronts the United States once again with the prospect of fighting a conventional conflict against a major nuclear power. It may be prudent to revisit the topic of limited nuclear war and the use of tactical nuclear weapons given the challenges of the current security environment. However, one idea that has emerged from the Scowcroft Center at the Atlantic Council seems particularly short-sighted and fraught with dangers: the proposal to plan and prepare for the first use of tactical nuclear weapons against a Chinese naval and amphibious force massed in the Taiwan Strait in the initial stages of an invasion.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.