Engaging China on Strategic Stability and Mutual Vulnerability
George Perkovich | The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
If China and the United States can sustain a process of serious dialogue, they will keep their relationship from worsening even if they cannot formally restrain their competition. And if dialogue leads one to ask the other for deeds to demonstrate goodwill, the paper has suggested some such deeds that could be undertaken with no security hazard and only slight political risk. No one should have the illusion that happiness is in this couple’s future. All this work would be to allow a nonviolent cohabitation that is better than the alternative of destitute divorce or murder-suicide.
South Korea Launches Military Drills With the US as Tensions Mount with North
Christian Davies | Financial Times
South Korea embarked on a round of military exercises on Monday amid heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula in the wake of a salvo of recent North Korean missile launches. The annual drills will simulate a range of threats from North Korea, including the use of nuclear weapons, and will involve troops from across the South Korean armed forces as well as some US soldiers.
US Expresses ‘Confidence’ in Pakistan to Keep Nuclear Arms Secure’
Abid Hussain | Al Jazeera
The United States has expressed its “confidence” in Pakistan’s ability to secure its nuclear arsenal, days after President Joe Biden called the country one of the most dangerous nations in the world and said it had “nuclear weapons without any cohesion”...The remarks came after a meeting between Derek Chollet, state department counsellor, and Pakistan envoy to the US, Masood Khan.
Why the War in Ukraine Won’t Spark a Nuclear Proliferation Cascade
Nicholas L. Miller | Foreign Policy
The lesson thus seems clear: Whether you’re a status quo power or a dissatisfied aggressor, you’ll be better off with the bomb. According to Yale University historian Timothy Snyder, who has taken the argument perhaps the farthest, unless Ukraine dispels these lessons by defeating Russia, the result will be “global nuclear proliferation.”...Although the logic of these arguments is persuasive at first glance, they are not well supported by the history of nuclear proliferation, in large part because they overlook the complexity of nuclear decision-making.
Xi’s Mention of ‘Strategic Deterrence’ points to China’s Nuclear Buildup
Amber Wang | South China Morning Post
China is expected to boost its nuclear arsenal after pledges to improve strategic deterrence appeared in its key Communist Party congress report for the first time. “We will establish a strong system of strategic deterrence,” President Xi Jinping said at the opening of the 20th party congress on Sunday.
In his work report, which lays out the country’s development path for the next five years and beyond, Xi called for an increase in the proportion of “new-domain forces with new combat capabilities”.
How to Detect an Imminent Russian Nuclear Attack
The Economist
Will the world get any warning if Mr Putin is about to go over the nuclear brink? Probably, say Western spooks. To judge from their foreknowledge of Russia’s invasion, they seem to have good insight into the Kremlin’s decision-making. As for satellites and other technical means, much would depend on which weapons it decided to use…In any case, argues James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment, another think-tank, hiding the movement of warheads would be against Russia’s purpose: “Putin would want us to know he is preparing for nuclear use. He would much prefer to threaten to use nuclear weapons and extract concessions than actually use them.”