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E.U. Ministers, Scrambling to Save Iran Nuclear Deal, Play Down Breaches

IN THIS ISSUE: E.U. Ministers, Scrambling to Save Iran Nuclear Deal, Play Down Breaches, U.N. Nuclear Chief Set to Leave Amid Iran Standoff, Trump Is Running Out of Time to Denuclearize North Korea, Nuclear Industry Push for Reduced Oversight Gaining Traction, Air Force’s Next-Gen ICBM Program Takes Another Step Forward, Europe and the INF Crisis – Strength and Dialogue

Published on July 18, 2019

E.U. Ministers, Scrambling to Save Iran Nuclear Deal, Play Down Breaches

Matina Stevis-Gridneff | New York Times

Scrambling to save the nuclear agreement with Iran, European foreign ministers declared Monday that Iranian breaches so far were not serious enough to take steps that could lead to reimposed international sanctions and a collapse of the accord. That conclusion, reached at a meeting in Brussels, effectively extended a lifeline for the 2015 nuclear agreement in defiance of pressure by the Trump administration. The agreement has been increasingly imperiled since the United States abandoned the accord more than a year ago and renewed its own sanctions on Iran. The European Union ministers reiterated their view that the agreement was the only option for curbing Iran’s nuclear program. In recent weeks Iran has exceeded the amount and purity of the uranium it is permitted under the accord, transgressions confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The Iranians have said they intend to breach the limits even more unless they get what the accord promised Iran: economic relief.

U.N. Nuclear Chief Set to Leave Amid Iran Standoff

Laurence Norman | Wall Street Journal

The head of the United Nations’ atomic agency is preparing to step down early, potentially kicking off a fight for control of the agency that has oversight of Iran’s nuclear program, diplomats said. Director General Yukiya Amano is in contact with members of the board of governors regarding his future plans, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Wednesday. He is expected to announce his resignation early next week, two diplomats said, although it could be months before he leaves. While the process of finding a replacement is unlikely to start for a while, the divisions over the Iranian nuclear deal between Russia and China on one side and the U.S. on the other side could easily spill over into the decision-making process for Mr. Amano’s replacement.

Trump Is Running Out of Time to Denuclearize North Korea

Uri Friedman | Atlantic

It’s been nearly three years since Barack Obama warned Donald Trump that the biggest danger he’d face would be North Korea’s nuclear weapons. Since then, Trump’s met three times with the North Korean dictator, including a made-for-TV visit to the demilitarized zone; cultivated a flourishing pen-pal relationship with Kim Jong Un; obtained a shaky pledge from Pyongyang to not conduct nuclear- and long-range-missile tests; and secured the release of some American prisoners. What he hasn’t achieved is the denuclearization of North Korea.With time running out in his first term, Trump might have to settle for keeping the North Korean nuclear arsenal from getting much worse—or maybe, if there’s a diplomatic breakthrough, scaling it back. The price might be sanctions relief for North Korea. The question is whether that will prove too high a price for the Trump administration.

Nuclear Industry Push for Reduced Oversight Gaining Traction

Ellen Knickmeyer | Associated Press

Fewer mock commando raids to test nuclear power plants’ defenses against terrorist attacks. Fewer, smaller government inspections for plant safety issues. Less notice to the public and to state governors when problems arise. They’re part of the money-saving rollbacks sought by the country’s nuclear industry under President Donald Trump and already approved or pending approval by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, largely with little input from the general public. The nuclear power industry says the safety culture at the U.S. nuclear industry — 40 years after partial meltdown of a nuclear reactor at Three Mile Island — is “exceptional” and merits the easing of government inspections.

Air Force’s Next-Gen ICBM Program Takes Another Step Forward

Valerie Insinna | Defense News

The Air Force moved its competition for new intercontinental ballistic missilesto the next stage on July 16, releasing a solicitation for the weapon system’s first five production lots. The contract for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent’s engineering, manufacturing and development phase is expected to be awarded in the fourth quarter in 2020. The Air Force will choose a single winner from the two companies — Boeing and Northrop Grumman — currently involved in the program’s technology maturation and risk reduction phase. Although the details of the solicitation are classified, the Air Force intends to award the GBSD contract to the company that provides “the best overall value,” said Maj. Gen. Shaun Morris, the Air Force program executive officer for strategic systems and commander of the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center, which is leading the procurement. This means that proposals will take into account both capability and cost. Morris added, “The GBSD will be designed to be adaptable and responsive to the challenges posed by the pace of technological change and new threat environments.” GBSD will replace the Minuteman III ICBMs, which were fielded in the 1960s and have gone through only minimal upgrades over their 50 years of use. Fielding a follow-on capability is a major priority of the Defense Department, with its acquisition executive Ellen Lord stating in May that there is “no margin” to do another service life extension for the Minuteman III.

Europe and the INF Crisis – Strength and Dialogue

Ulrich Kuhn | CIRSD 

Europe is facing a new debate about nuclear weapons. The crisis surrounding the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty forces NATO allies to reconsider military and arms control responses. Only a healthy mix of strength and dialogue will guarantee allied unity. The 1987 Treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union on the Elimination of their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles—more commonly referred to as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty—can easily be considered a landmark arms control and disarmament treaty.

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