Edition

From Deterrence to Cooperative Security on the Korean Peninsula

IN THIS ISSUE: Executive Summary of the 2020 Adherence to and Compliance With Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments (Compliance Report), China May Have Conducted Low-Level Nuclear Test, US Claims, Russia Carried Out Anti-Satellite Missile Test: US Military

Published on April 16, 2020

From Deterrence to Cooperative Security on the Korean Peninsula

Toby Dalton | Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament 

Lamentably, in the months following the Singapore summit, despite additional high-level summitry, Washington and Pyongyang struggled to translate this new logic into sustained concrete action. As such, it is yet to be demonstrated that the new, “simultaneous equations” model can be more successful in moving the Korean Peninsula toward denuclearization than past approaches. Even so, pending diplomatic progress, it is worth examining in more detail the constituent security transformations that would be required to make the new approach workable.

Executive Summary of the 2020 Adherence to and Compliance With Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements and Commitments (Compliance Report)

U.S. Department of State

The full Report assesses U.S. compliance with and adherence to arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements and related commitments in 2019, including confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs), as well as the compliance and adherence in 2019 of other nations to arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements and commitments, including CSBMs and the Missile Technology Control Regime, to which the United States is a participating State.  The issues addressed in the Report will primarily reflect activities from January 1, 2019, through December 31, 2019, unless otherwise noted.

China May Have Conducted Low-Level Nuclear Test, US Claims

Julian Borger | Guardian

The US state department has claimed China may have secretly conducted a low-yield underground nuclear test, in an accusation likely to further inflame already poor relations between Washington and Beijing. A report on arms control compliance does not offer proof, but points to circumstantial evidence, of excavations and other stepped-up activity at China’s Lop Nur test site. Both the US and China signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), concluded in 1996, but neither country has ratified it, and – partly as a result – the agreement has not come into force. US hawks have been urging the Trump administration to formally break from the CTBT, leaving it free to conduct new nuclear tests of its own.

Russia Carried Out Anti-Satellite Missile Test: US Military

Idrees Ali and Joey Roulette | Reuters

Russia carried out a test of an anti-satellite missile on Wednesday, the U.S. military said, calling it an example of the threats the United States faced in space. The move comes as officials have said that space will increasingly become an important domain for warfare, with the U.S. and other countries such as Russia and China stepping up their military postures in low-Earth orbit and near the moon. Experts say that anti-satellite weapons that shatter their targets pose a space hazard by creating a cloud of fragments that can collide with other objects, potentially setting off a chain reaction of projectiles through Earth orbit.

US Accuses North Korea of Cyberattacks, a Sign That Deterrence Is Failing

David Sanger and Nicole Perlroth | New York Times

The United States accused North Korea on Wednesday of employing an array of old and new forms of cyberattacks to steal and launder money, extort companies and use digital currencies to gain cash for its nuclear weapons program. The report — issued jointly by the State Department, the Department of Homeland Security, the Treasury Department and the F.B.I. — says the purpose of the accelerated program is for North Korea “to generate revenue for its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs.” But the decision to publicly focus on North Korea’s actions is quiet acknowledgment that President Trump’s two-year diplomatic effort, backed by continued economic sanctions, has failed to slow the North’s nuclear production or prevent it from using new avenues of attack.

North Korea's Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Personnel Movement Continues Throughout the Site

Frank Pabian, Jack Liu, and Peter Makowsky | 38 North

Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site shows personnel movement throughout the complex, including around the previously abandoned East Portal, where some additional unknown activity has been evident. While the nature of activity at the East Portal is unclear, it may be part of routine security patrols but could also involve some form of radiation monitoring, given that the footpaths lead to the base of the mountain near the portal from where leaks had been previously detected.

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