How Different is the “New Normal” from the Old Normal in South Asian Crises?
Toby Dalton | Strafasia
Tit-for-tat airstrikes during the last major South Asia crisis in February 2019 marked a significant escalation and spurred claims by New Delhi and Islamabad of a “new normal” in their willingness to engage militarily. However, the 15 months since the February 2019 Balakot crisis mostly resemble the old normal in important respects. Events that might have been expected to provoke military escalation under the “new normal” passed by far less eventfully. Is South Asia really more primed today for war?
Despite US Sanctions, Iran Expands Its Nuclear Stockpile
Colum Lynch | Foreign Policy
Two years after President Donald Trump announced the U.S withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, Tehran has resumed its enrichment of uranium, restarted research and development on advanced centrifuges, and expanded its stockpile of nuclear fuel, cutting in half the time it would need to produce enough weapons-grade fuel to build a nuclear bomb. While there is no evidence Tehran is preparing a dash for a nuclear weapon, the Iranian advances raise questions about the success of the White House’s so-called “maximum pressure” campaign.
NATO Chief Backs Germany's Vow to Keep War-Ready US Nukes
Sebastian Sprenger | Defense News
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has waded into Germany’s fiery debate about the decades-old pledge to retain American atomic bombs in the European nation as a way of deterring Russia. Stoltenberg argued that only sticking to the doctrine of “nuclear sharing” would ensure Berlin's continued seat at the table of strategic decision-making within the alliance. Debate has flared up in recent weeks about Germany’s nuclear role, following the German Defence Ministry’s recommendation to purchase 30 F-18s for the job, as the Tornado fighter jets are expected to reach the end of their useful life by 2030.
China ‘Won't Win More Respect’ if it Expands Nuclear Arsenal Following Calls From National Media, Analyst Says
Liu Zhen | South China Morning Post
Ties between the two countries have deteriorated sharply since Washington labelled Beijing a strategic rival in 2017, and belligerent opinion leaders in China have called for the People’s Liberation Army to add to its stockpile of nuclear warheads to deter an “increasingly irrational” United States. The latest call came on Friday, when Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of nationalistic tabloid Global Times, posted on social media that China should increase its nuclear warheads to 1,000, including “at least 100 DF-41” intercontinental ballistic missiles that can reach the US mainland. According to Zhao Tong, a senior fellow in the nuclear policy programme at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre for Global Policy in Beijing, the argument made by Hu and others for more warheads was not convincing.
Trump Calls for Arms Control With Russia and China in Putin Call
Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump stressed his desire for arms control that includes both Russia and China in a telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday, the White House said in a statement. Trump has repeatedly argued - so far to no avail - for China to join the United States and Russia in talks on an arms control accord to replace the 2010 New START treaty between Washington and Moscow that expires in February. China, estimated to have about 300 nuclear weapons, has repeatedly rejected Trump’s proposal, arguing its nuclear force is defensive and poses no threat.
Europe Must Prepare for US Exit From Vital Russia Treaty, Former NATO Generals Warn
Julian Borger | Guardian
A group of retired Nato generals and defence officials have urged the US to stay in a 1992 treaty with Russia on mutual reconnaissance flights, but also warned European capitals to prepare for a US exit. The US defence secretary, Mark Esper, and the secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, are said by US sources to be determined to leave the Open Skies Treaty (OST), which European leaders and arms control advocates believe reduces the risk of a war breaking out through miscalculation by adding to mutual transparency. A joint statement by a group of 16 retired military commanders and defence ministers, coordinated by the European Leadership Network (ELN) released on Tuesday, said the OST was a vital pillar of stability between nuclear powers.