How I Learned to Stop Worrying and (Sort Of) Love Nuclear Forecasting
James M. Acton | Metaculus
Throughout the war, as U.S. President Joe Biden himself has acknowledged, U.S. policy toward Ukraine has been shaped (sensibly, in my opinion) by concern about nuclear escalation. Underlying this concern are assumptions, probably largely implicit, about the likelihood and consequences of nuclear use. Given, therefore, that a form of forecasting has effectively occurred within the U.S. government—indeed, has to occur—it is better that the process be formalized so that assumptions can be more rigorously stated, tested and debated, and best practices brought to bear.
N. Korea Fires Missile That May Have Been New Type of Weapon
HYUNG-JIN KIM, KIM TONG-HYUNG and MARI YAMAGUCHI | Associated Press
North Korea on Thursday conducted its first intercontinental ballistic missile launch in a month, possibly testing a new more mobile, harder-to-detect missile for the first time, its neighbors said, as it extends its provocative run of weapons tests. Japan briefly urged residents on a northern island to take shelter in an indication of its vigilance over North Korea’s evolving missile threats…South Korea’s military believes North Korea launched a new type of ballistic missile, possibly using solid fuel, a defense official said under the condition of anonymity because of office rules.
Russia Conducts Test Launch of 'Advanced' ICBM - The Moscow Times
Moscow Times
Russia has conducted what it said was the successful test launch of an "advanced" intercontinental ballistic missile, weeks after it suspended participation in its last remaining nuclear arms control pact with the United States. The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement that a "combat crew successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile [ICBM] of a mobile ground-based missile system" from its Kapustin Yar test site on Tuesday. "The missile's training warhead hit a mock target at the Sary-Shagan training ground [Republic of Kazakhstan] with given precision," it added.
US and ROK Convene High-Level Defense Dialogue on North Korean Nuclear Threats
Jeongmin Kim | NK News
U.S. and South Korean defense officials convened for a two-day meeting this week to discuss combined readiness against North Korean nuclear and missile threats and other alliance issues, according to Seoul and Washington... The Pentagon and ROK Ministry of National Defense said the two sides “acknowledged that the DPRK continues to diversify its delivery systems and advance its nuclear capability following unprecedented missile testing in 2022 and continued provocations in 2023.” U.S. and ROK officials also “committed to strengthen cooperation in each area of extended deterrence including information sharing, joint planning and execution, consultation mechanisms, and crisis communication in preparation for DPRK threats and accelerate expanding the ROK’s role under the combined defense system,” according to a joint press release.
New Member Finland to Take Part in NATO's Nuclear Planning
Reuters
NATO's new member Finland will participate in the Western military alliance's nuclear planning and support operations, the Finnish defence ministry said on Thursday, although it has decided not to allow any nuclear arms on its soil…In practice, Finland will take part in the work of NATO's nuclear planning group, which reviews and sets the alliance's nuclear policy, and could join support functions for NATO nuclear operations outside its own territory, Director General for Defence Policy Janne Kuusela told Reuters.
France Renews Nuclear Co-operation with China
Nuclear Engineering International
France and China agreed to renew their partnership in nuclear energy during the recent state visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to China. This was one of a raft of economic agreements reached in the course of the three-day trip, during which Macron was accompanied by a large delegation, including 50 key business representatives. As a result of the visit, France signed 15 business contracts with China worth billions of euros.