Edition

How Nuclear Forces Worldwide Are Dealing With the Coronavirus Pandemic

IN THIS ISSUE: Pompeo Tells Russia's Lavrov Any New Arms Talks Must Include China, Nuclear Risk in the Euro-Atlantic, Pakistan Criticizes Proposed Sale of US Missile Systems to India, The Air Force Abruptly Ends Its Continuous Bomber Presence on Guam After 16 Years

Published on April 21, 2020

How Nuclear Forces Worldwide Are Dealing With the Coronavirus Pandemic

John Krzyzaniak | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

So, if the world’s nuclear forces have not already felt the strain caused by the pandemic, it is likely only a matter of time until they feel it. But every country with nuclear weapons has a different calculus to make, and some aspects of these arsenals may be more vulnerable to the virus than others. Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the Bulletin that China’s nuclear submarine fleet is also vulnerable to the virus. Compared to land-based missile forces and aircraft units, the submarines have a greater challenge both because of their inability to receive external support during deployment and because of their relative lack of operational experience.

Pompeo Tells Russia's Lavrov Any New Arms Talks Must Include China

Jonathan Landay | Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told his Russian counterpart on Friday that any future arms control talks must focus on an American proposal for a new arms control accord that includes Russia and China, the State Department said. China, whose arsenal of an estimated 300 nuclear weapons is far smaller than those of Russia and the United States, has rejected such talks. Ortagus said Pompeo’s comments came as he and Lavrov discussed “next steps in the bilateral Strategic Security Dialogue, taking into account the COVID-19 pandemic”. New START will expire next February unless the sides agree to extend it for up to five years. Russia has said it would be willing to extend the accord, but the Trump administration has declined to state a position.

Nuclear Risk in the Euro-Atlantic

Ulrich Kühn | UNIDIR

The risk of nuclear weapon use—be it deliberately in an escalating crisis or war, in accordance with one’s own nuclear doctrine or due to inadvertent events—has grown in the Euro-Atlantic region, mainly as a function of the recurring competition between the Russian Federation and the United States. As this chapter argues, decision makers are correct to see a riskier environment. Yet in considering the risk of nuclear weapon use, analysts and policymakers alike are assessing threats by often focusing on high-impact/low-probability scenarios, driven by misreading of one another’s plans and intentions. As a result, they are assessing the risks wrongly, and respond to the wrong things. 

Pakistan Criticizes Proposed Sale of US Missile Systems to India

Ayaz Gul | Voice of America

Pakistan said Friday that a proposed new multimillion-dollar sale of American missile systems to Islamabad’s archrival, India, would destabilize an already “volatile” situation in South Asia. The U.S. Department of State on Tuesday cleared the delivery of 10 AGM-84L Harpoon Block II air-launched missiles,16 MK 54 lightweight torpedoes and related equipment to India. New Delhi has not commented on the $155 million deal, which is still subject to congressional approval. Pakistan’s military tensions with India remain high and both nuclear-armed nations have been locked in intense skirmishes across their border in the divided region of Kashmir.

The Air Force Abruptly Ends Its Continuous Bomber Presence on Guam After 16 Years

Joseph Trevithick | WarZone

The U.S. Air Force has ended its uninterrupted rotations of bombers to Andersen Air Force Base on Guam, which have been ongoing since 2004, as it shifts to a less predictable concept of operations. Five B-52H Stratofortresses left yesterday with no replacement aircraft in place, bringing an end to what the service had called the Continuous Bomber Presence Mission. This notably came just days after the bombers took part in a massive “elephant walk” readiness drill that also involved six KC-135R aerial refueling tankers, an RQ-4B Global Hawk drone, as well as a U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton drone, and an MH-60S Sea Hawk helicopter, which was seen as a significant statement of American resolve aimed China.

Germany to Order 45 US Jets to Replace 1970s' Tornados, Report Says

Marcus Kloeckner | Stars and Stripes

Germany will buy 45 fighter aircraft from the United States to replace its aging Tornado fighter-bombers, a German media report said. In an email sent last week to Defense Secretary Mark Esper, Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said Berlin has decided to buy 30 F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and 15 EA-18G Growlers to replace its 45 Tornados, Der Spiegel news magazine reported Sunday. During a visit to Washington in September, Kramp-Karrenbauer said the aircraft chosen to replace the Tornado, which has been in service since the 1970s, must “seamlessly” fill the aging fleet’s dual role — serving as a fighter-bomber in conventional warfare and maintaining the capability to carry the American B61 nuclear gravity bomb, the German Council for Foreign Policy said in a February brief.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.