How to Prevent Nuclear War: Give Putin a Way Out
James M. Acton | Washington Post
On Sunday morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his defense minister to place the country’s “deterrence forces on high combat alert.” This technical-sounding order left the normally unflappable Sergey Shoigu visibly uncomfortable — and with good reason: In the middle of the invasion of Ukraine, Putin had just ordered him to start readying Russia’s nuclear forces for use. The likelihood of a nuclear war, while still low, is rising. Putin’s unprovoked war of aggression has, so far at least, not played out as he might have hoped, and this nuclear threat is unlikely to change the war’s dynamics. If the conflict drags on, desperation could lead him to cross the nuclear threshold. Ukraine, the United States and its NATO allies will have to try to create an off-ramp for Putin to avoid that catastrophic outcome.
The Most Immediate Nuclear Danger in Ukraine Isn’t Chernobyl
James M. Acton | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
There is a disquieting nuclear dimension to the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe of Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. This brutal assault violates the security guarantees that Moscow provided in 1994, when Kyiv allowed it to remove nuclear weapons left in Ukrainian territory after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In recent days, trying to justify his aggression, Russian President Vladimir Putin has invoked the specter of a nonexistent Ukrainian nuclear weapons program—a cynical ploy to justify regime change and perhaps a pretext for trashing those earlier security guarantees.
U.S., Iran Split Over Key Nuclear Issues as Deal Deadline Nears
Laurence Norman | Wall Street Journal
Iranian and U.S. officials are entering a crucial week of negotiations to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, with significant differences remaining on several key issues and new concerns that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could complicate the talks. Iran’s chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri-Kani, arrived in Vienna Monday morning with positions that could prove difficult to bridge with his Western counterparts, diplomats said. With Iran continuing to expand its nuclear work, Western diplomats have warned that the negotiations could collapse if a deal isn’t reached this week.
Ukraine Asks IAEA for 30km Safe Zones Around Nuclear Plants
World Nuclear News
The head of Ukraine’s nuclear power plant operator Energoatom has asked the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to intervene to help keep the area around the plants free from military action. Petro Kotin, CEO of Energoatom, said that he had spoken with the Director General of the IAEA on Monday 28 February about the situation in the country, where Russian forces have been involved in military action since last Thursday. In a statement the company said that columns of military equipment and forces have been moving near the nuclear power plants, with “shells exploding near the nuclear power plant - this can lead to highly undesirable threats across the planet.”
Russia’s Missiles See Mixed Results in Ukraine War as World Watches
Josh Smith | Reuters
Russia has employed hundreds of powerful and precise ballistic missiles in the first days of its Ukraine attack, but analysts and U.S. officials say many Ukrainian defences remain intact - effects that countries around the world are watching closely. The use of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) is likely being watched closely as a real-world case study by China, North Korea, and other countries that have been developing increasingly advanced arsenals of such weapons in recent years. And Western governments who see Russia as an adversary are eager to gather data on the missiles’ effects in combat.
How Beijing Views Seoul’s Role in Its Competition With Washington in the Indo-Pacific
Tong Zhao | Stimson Center
While South Korea remains the weakest link in the U.S. security alliance in the Indo-Pacific, the country’s strategic choice between China and the U.S. is particularly important. Tong Zhao, senior fellow in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program, examines how Beijing views Seoul’s role in its competition with Washington in the Indo-Pacific region and the necessity of better understanding Chinese thinking to promote constructive diplomacy and maintain region order.