How Washington and Seoul Can Get on the Same Page to Deter North Korea
Toby Dalton | War on the Rocks
Moscow is using the threat of nuclear escalation to deter outside powers coming to Kyiv’s aid while it continues its devastating military assault on Ukraine. Not surprisingly, the Russo-Ukrainian War stimulated a boisterous debate in Seoul on how to make sure Kim Jong Un doesn’t follow Vladimir Putin’s playbook. Even though South Korea is a U.S. treaty ally covered by extended nuclear deterrence guarantees, which Ukraine is not, fears in Seoul of North Korean nuclear coercion are growing. The resulting policy debate centers on what steps the United States should take to increase the presence and visibility of nuclear weapons in the South Korean-U.S. alliance. As the Biden administration recalibrates policies to deal with the fallout from Russia’s invasion, addressing deterrence demands from allies in East Asia will be high on the list.
U.S. Cancels ICBM Test Due to Russia Nuclear Tensions
Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali | Reuters
The U.S. military has canceled a test of its Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile that it had initially aimed only to delay in a bid to lower nuclear tensions with Russia during the war in Ukraine, the Air Force told Reuters on Friday. The Pentagon first announced a delay of the test on March 2 after Russia said it was putting its nuclear forces on high alert. Washington said at the time it was important both the United States and Russia “bear in mind the risk of miscalculation and take steps to reduce those risks.” But it had publicly stated its intent only to delay the test “a little bit,” and not cancel it.
North Korea Says It Will Strike South With Nuclear Weapons if Attacked
Josh Smith | Reuters
North Korea opposes war, but if South Korea chooses military confrontation or makes a preemptive strike, then the North’s nuclear forces will have to attack, the powerful sister of leader Kim Jong Un said on Tuesday. Kim Yo Jong, a senior official in the government and ruling party, said it was a “very big mistake” for South Korea’s minister of defense to make recent remarks discussing attacks on the North, state news agency KCNA reported. South Korean Defense Minister Suh Wook said on Friday that his country’s military has a variety of missiles with significantly improved firing range, accuracy and power, with “the ability to accurately and quickly hit any target in North Korea.” North Korea has test-fired a range of increasingly powerful missiles this year, and officials in Seoul and Washington fear it may be preparing to resume testing nuclear weapons for the first time since 2017 amid stalled negotiations.
An Optimist Admits That It Is Difficult to See a Path Forward
George Perkovich | Arms Control Today
Optimism is a virtue when working in the nuclear policy field. Given the stakes of the subject matter, it helps to be hopeful, to believe something can and should be done, even when the prospects of success are slim. In this sense, I have always tried to be positive, looking for ways to improve a bad political situation—after the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests in 1998, the march to war in Iraq in 2003, the collapse of EU nuclear diplomacy with Iran in 2005, the first North Korean nuclear test in 2006, and the election of U.S. President Donald Trump in 2016. Today, however, the world is watching what may be the defining security crisis of a generation unfold, one that risks catastrophic nuclear escalation. Yet, it is extremely difficult to see a path forward for arms control and cooperative security measures between the United States and Russia, the United States and China, India and China, India and Pakistan, or anyone else.
US Tested Hypersonic Missile in Mid-March but Kept It Quiet to Avoid Escalating Tensions With Russia
Oren Liebermann | CNN
The US successfully tested a hypersonic missile in mid-March but kept it quiet for two weeks to avoid escalating tensions with Russia as President Joe Biden was about to travel to Europe, according to a defense official familiar with the matter. The Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept (HAWC) was launched from a B-52 bomber off the west coast, the official said, in the first successful test of the Lockheed Martin version of the system. A booster engine accelerated the missile to high speed, at which point the air-breathing scramjet engine ignited and propelled the missile at hypersonic speeds of Mach 5 and above.
Australia Accelerates Missile Upgrade Due to Growing Threats
Rod McGuirk | Associated Press
Australia has accelerated plans to buy long-range strike missiles years ahead of schedule because of growing threats posed by Russia and China. Defense Minister Peter Dutton said Tuesday the accelerated rearming of fighter jets and warships would cost 3.5 billion Australian dollars ($2.6 billion) and increase Australia’s deterrence to potential adversaries. “There was a working assumption that an act of aggression by China toward Taiwan might take place in the 2040s. I think that timeline now has been dramatically compressed,” Dutton told Seven Network television.