If Denuclearization Is a Fantasy, What Can North Korean Negotiations Achieve?
Ariel (Eli) Levite and Toby Dalton | War on the Rocks
At the end of December, having paid his respects to his ancestral heritage by riding a white stallion to Mt. Paektu, Kim Jong Un returned to Pyongyang to deliver a lengthy address to the North Korean Worker’s Party Central Committee. In the speech, Kim laid out his new strategic vision, one that puts little faith in denuclearization talks with President Donald Trump. North Korea, he stated, would no longer be bound by a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and missile testing, and that soon “the world will witness a new strategic weapon.” More ominously, he committed to “reliably maintain the constant readiness for action of the powerful nuclear deterrent,” a destabilizing development that increases the likelihood of a nuclear detonation. The bottom line: North Korea will remain a state that possesses a deadly nuclear arsenal and plans to further modernize and expand it. Now what?
Europe to Avoid Taking Iran Nuclear Dispute to UN, EU’s Top Diplomat Says
Reuters
The European Union will extend indefinitely the time limit to resolve disputes in the Iran 2015 nuclear accord to avoid having to go to the U.N. Security Council or triggering new sanctions, the EU’s top diplomat said during a visit to Tehran. Britain, France and Germany formally accused Iran on Jan. 14 of violating the terms of the 2015 arms control agreement aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear program. Violations could lead to the reimposing of U.N. sanctions lifted under the 2015 deal. “We are in agreement not to go directly to a strict time limit which would oblige (us) to go to the Security Council,” the EU’s Josep Borrell told reporters during a visit to Tehran on Monday. In his remarks, broadcast on Tuesday, he said: “The willingness is not to start a process that goes to the end of JCPOA, but to keep it alive,” referring to the Iran deal by its formal name, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. After months of gradual steps to reduce compliance, Iran said on Jan. 6 it would scrap limits on enriching uranium. Borrell, who is chair of the Iran deal, was notified in January by Paris, London and Berlin that they had triggered the dispute mechanism, in theory starting a 15-day process to resolve issues with Iran. Borrell said he had agreed with Berlin, London and Paris to “continuously postpone” the 15-day limit. However, he said progress depended on maintaining the presence of the U.N. atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in Iran to monitor its nuclear activities.
Iran May Block UN Inspectors if it Faces a ‘New Situation’
AP
Iran’s president said Monday that Tehran might reconsider providing U.N. inspectors with access to Iran’s nuclear facilities if the country were confronted with “a new situation,” the official IRNA news agency reported. Hassan Rouhani’s remarks came during a meeting with Josep Borrell, the European Union’s new foreign affairs chief, who was on his first visit to Iran since taking office. The visit is seen as the latest move by the EU to save Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers. The agreement hangs on a single thread, one that permits international inspection of its atomic sites, and is already threatened. “The trend of inspections that has been carried out until today will continue, unless we face a new situation,” Rouhani was quoted by IRNA as saying. He did not elaborate. Rouhani said Iran is ready for engagement with Europe. “Whenever the other party fully implements its commitments, Iran will return to its commitments,” Rouhani said. Trump, facing an impeachment trial and an election campaign, imposed new sanctions last week targeting the head of Iran’s nuclear program and the agency he directs.
SECNAV Modly Wants Navy ‘All Ahead Full’ on Hypersonic Weapons in 2020
Ben Warner | USNI News
The Navy will focus in 2020 on developing hypersonic weapons at breakneck speed, with testing to occur throughout the year, Acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas Modly said Friday in a message to the fleet. Modly’s memo, SECNAV Vectors 9, likens the need to develop hypersonic weapons today to 1957, when the Soviet Union launched the first satellite, Sputnik. The U.S. scrambled to respond to the new reality: the Soviet Union was in space, and the U.S. was not. “The bottom line is that our Navy and Marine Corps team will need to move forward together, reaping the keen intellects and experiences of everyone onboard today in order to fully leverage the full potential of these new weapons in the future,” Modly wrote. Two years ago, Russia claimed to have already deployed hypersonic missile systems in the south of the country, according to media reports of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s March 2018 State of Russia address. The Navy is leading the current U.S. military effort to develop hypersonic weapons. This spring, Modly said, the Navy plans to demonstrate the Navy-designed Hypersonic Glide Body. Hypersonic launcher testing will occur throughout the year.
US Military Invests in New Weapon to Defeat Hypersonic Missiles as Russia Upgrades its Arsenal
Tom O’Connor | Newsweek
The United States has contracted a leading defense manufacturer to develop a new weapon capable of thwarting hypersonic missiles such as those Russia just added to its own growing arsenal of weapons it claims are too fast to be fought. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) awarded aerospace and defense company Northrop Grumman a $13 million contract Tuesday for work on its Glide Breaker program. The program is described by DARPA as having begun in 2018 “to develop and demonstrate technologies to enable defense against hypersonic systems” and the Pentagon said the new contract would provide investment to acquire such capabilities. The U.S. has raced to build both hypersonic offense and defense as Russia and China have deployed missiles they boasted could travel more than five times the speed of sound. Meanwhile, Moscow's defense systems reportedly gained a new hypersonic asset. The mobile, medium-range Pantsir, known to the U.S.-led NATO Western military as “SA-22 Greyhound,” is designed to take out both missiles and aircraft. The platform has been deployed at home and abroad, including in warzones like Syria, where Slugin said it “proved to be effective” when engaging moving jihadi targets. A Pentagon spokesperson told Newsweek in November that the decision by Washington's rivals to weaponize hypersonic technology “has created a warfighting asymmetry that we must address” and, less than a month later, the Pentagon awarded Lockheed Martin a nearly $1 billion contract to develop a hypersonic air-to-surface missile called the AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon.
Iran Has ‘De-Escalated,’ But Threat of Retaliation Remains, General Says
Missy Ryan | Washington Post
A month after the U.S. strike that killed Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, Iran's military is no longer on a heightened war footing, but the United States continues to brace for further retaliation, a senior military official said Sunday. Gen. Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie Jr., who heads U.S. Central Command, said Iran had “de-escalated” its ballistic missile force and brought its air defense forces back to a “normal state of readiness” following its retaliatory strikes on bases housing U.S. troops in Iraq. Speaking during a visit to the USS Harry S. Truman, an American aircraft carrier conducting operations in the northern Arabian Sea, McKenzie said Iran’s maritime forces likewise had displayed a “fairly normal” level of activity in recent weeks. American officials have voiced concern about further attacks from Iran since the Jan. 7 ballistic missile strikes in Iraq. Those attacks, the first direct, overt military attack by the Iranian government, did not kill any U.S. troops but resulted in a spate of traumatic brain injuries. McKenzie said he believed Iran was still “digesting” the impact of the Trump administration’s decision to kill Soleimani, a figure of unparalleled influence whom U.S. officials have described as instrumental in the growth of Iran’s network of armed proxy groups across the Middle East.