Inadvertent Escalation and the Entanglement of Nuclear Command-and-Control Capabilities
James Acton | Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
The United States military is increasingly focused on preparing for the possibility of a major conflict against China or Russia. These preparations should include greater efforts to manage the risk of such a conflict inadvertently escalating into a nuclear war. This risk is rising today as a result of technological developments that are increasing both the likelihood and effectiveness of nonnuclear attacks against key nuclear command, control, communications, and intelligence assets. Such “entanglement” exacerbates the risk of U.S. nonnuclear strikes on Russia or China sparking inadvertent escalation—a danger that analysts have warned about over the past decade or so and that some military planners and civilian policymakers recognize. Entanglement also creates the risk of inadvertent escalation as a result of Chinese or Russian strikes on the United States—a possibility that has scarcely been considered since the end of the Cold War.
Mattis: Talks with Europe on U.S. Withdrawal from Arms Pact Yield No Alternatives
Paul Sonne | Washington Post
U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said his talks with European allies so far have not resulted in any suggestions for addressing Russia’s violation of a Cold War-era arms control pact other than for the United States to withdraw. Mattis said he asked European allies for ideas at a North Atlantic Treaty Organization meeting in Belgium earlier this month, about two weeks before President Trump announced that the United States planned to pull out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or the INF Treaty. During his consultations with allies, Mattis said, he reiterated his position that the status quo — with Russia violating the treaty and the United States abiding by it — was unsustainable and wouldn’t last. He asked the other 28 nations in the alliance to offer suggestions about what the United States could do other than pull out of the treaty.
Russia says Preparing Answers to U.S. Questions on Arms Control Pact: RIA
Reuters
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Sunday that Moscow has started preparing answers to the questions related to arms control pact delivered by U.S. officials, RIA news agency quoted him as saying. “Just a week ago, a couple of days ahead of the announcement of the (U.S.) aim to leave the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty, Americans via their embassy in Moscow sent the Russian foreign ministry an extensive list of questions which are a concern to them,” Lavrov said.
Pompeo Likely to Meet N.K. Counterpart in U.S. Next Week: Source
Yonhap News Agency
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is likely to meet with his North Korean counterpart in the U.S. next week, a South Korean diplomatic source said Monday, as the two sides push to arrange a second summit between their leaders. Pompeo said in an Oct. 19 interview with the Voice of America that he hoped to have talks with his North Korean counterpart “in the next week and a half or so” to continue discussions on the North's denuclearization and the potential summit
N. Korea Unwilling to Provide Nuclear List due to U.S. Hostility: Presidential Adviser
Yonhap News Agency
North Korea is unwilling to provide a list detailing its nuclear facilities and materials as long as the United States holds on to a policy of hostility towards Pyongyang, a security adviser to President Moon Jae-in said Monday, citing a top North Korean official. Moon Chung-in, a special presidential adviser for unification, diplomacy and national security affairs, said that he recently heard a top-ranking North Korean official expressing reluctance to comply with the U.S. demand that the North submit a list of nuclear sites and accept an international nuclear inspection prior to a declaration to end the Korean War.
After Consecutive Failures, Watch U.S. Navy Intercept Test Missile with SM-3 Weapon
Aaron Mehta | Defense News
The Pentagon intercepted a test ballistic missile with the Standard Missile-3 Block IIA system, the second time that weapon has been successfully tested — a relief for the department following two consecutive test failures. The SM-3 Block IIA is a co-development between the U.S. and Japan, and is expected to be equipped on both the U.S. Aegis Ashore stations in Romania and Poland and the future Aegis Ashore stations in Japan — making it a keystone to America’s short- and intermediate-range missile defense strategies.