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Indo-Pacific Missile Arsenals: Avoiding Spirals and Mitigating Escalation Risks

IN THIS ISSUE: Indo-Pacific Missile Arsenals: Avoiding Spirals and Mitigating Escalation Risks, Biden Administration Decides To Build A New Nuclear Bomb To Get Rid Of An Old Bomb, Russia’s Defense Minister Accuses US of Fueling Tensions, Warns of Clash Between Nuclear Powers, Australia Must Lobby US for ‘No First Use’ of Nuclear Weapons, Says Ex-minister Gareth Evans, Why the US Fixation on Increa

Published on October 31, 2023

Indo-Pacific Missile Arsenals: Avoiding Spirals and Mitigating Escalation Risks

Ankit Panda | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The Indo-Pacific region is on the cusp of a new missile age: inventories of short- to intermediate-range surface-to-surface missile systems are quickly growing in the region. Military planners and policymakers may view these capabilities as essential to preserving peace and maintaining deterrence, but this proliferation could intensify already complex security dilemmas, particularly related to North Korea and the Taiwan Strait, and heighten nuclear escalation risks. A new Carnegie report identifies the motivators of missile proliferation dynamics in Asia and offers recommendations for addressing the most salient risks.

Biden Administration Decides To Build A New Nuclear Bomb To Get Rid Of An Old Bomb

HANS KRISTENSEN and MATT KORDA | Federation of American Scientists 

The Biden administration has decided to add a new nuclear gravity bomb to the US arsenal. The bomb will be known as the B61-13.The decision to add the B61-13 comes shortly after another new nuclear bomb – the B61-12 – began full-scale production last year and is currently entering the nuclear stockpile. The administration stated that it would not increase the number of weapons in the arsenal and that any B61-13s would come at the expense of the long-planned B61-12.

Russia’s Defense Minister Accuses US of Fueling Tensions, Warns of Clash Between Nuclear Powers

Stephen Sorace | FOX News

Russia’s minister of defense on Monday blamed the United States of fueling tensions across the globe, claiming that the West’s "steady escalation" threatens a military conflict between nuclear powers. Sergei Shoigu delivered remarks at a defense forum in Beijing, an annual event that China uses to promote military diplomacy and is attended by representatives from dozens of countries, including the U.S.

Australia Must Lobby US for ‘No First Use’ of Nuclear Weapons, Says Ex-minister Gareth Evans

Daniel Hurst | The Guardian 

Australia must lobby US for ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons, says ex-minister Gareth Evans  The Labor luminary Gareth Evans has urged Australia to lobby the US to promise “no first use” of nuclear weapons, warning that global arms control agreements “are now either dead or on life support”. The former foreign minister says that in the wake of sealing the Aukus nuclear-powered submarine deal, the Albanese government should give “some comfort to ALP members and voters that we are really serious about nuclear arms control”.

Why the US Fixation on Increased Nuclear Capability Won’t Deter China but Could Lead to Instability and Nuclear War

Andrew Facini | The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

In aggressively pursuing capability surges alone, the United States may end up on the wrong side of the stability-instability paradox, risking escalation to nuclear war—intentional or not—through an overreliance on introducing untested or provocative technologies. Instead, a stronger US strategy for responding to the challenge posed by China’s growing arsenal should be for the United States to supplement military capability by building multiple levels of mutual understanding and routes toward risk reduction across the Pacific.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.